Super Bowl LX Preview
The Seattle Seahawks (16-3) will take on the New England Patriots (17-3) in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. The game is at 3:30 PST.
The Seahawks lead the all-time series between these teams with a 11-9 advantage.
Mike Vrabel and Zak Kuhr have never went up against Klint Kubiak's offense, and Josh McDaniels offense has never faced Mike Macdonald's defense. A rare instance of no direct matchup history between these coaching staffs.
Injury Reports
Patriots:
LB Robert Spillane is listed as questionable with an ankle issue. He did not practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thurs/Fri.
EDGE Harold Landry is listed as questionable with a knee issue. He was limited on Wed/Fri and did not practice on Thursday.
DT Joshua Farmer is listed as questionable with a hamstring issue. He practiced in full all week.
No other Patriots have a game status and are expected to play.
Seahawks:
FB Robbie Ouzts is listed as questionable with a neck issue. He was limited all week in practice.
Several other Seahawks have an "unspecified" game status but are expected to play. OT Josh Jones was limited in practice on Friday. No other Seahawks have a game status and are expected to play.
Matchups to Watch
Seattle's run game:
The team that wins on the ground will likely win this game. Specifically the Seahawks. They are extremely reliant on their run game, with a 50% run rate(3rd in the NFL). Seattle runs the ball even if they aren't success doing so, which they largely haven't been this season. Here are some numbers, from all 19 weeks of their season:
4.1 yards per rush(24th in NFL)
-0.08 EPA per rush(25th)
62 rushes of 10+ yards(6th)
20.3% stuff rate(29th)
41% success rate(21st)
0.3 RYOE per attempt(19th)
1.04 yards before contact/attempt(24th)
This is fairly underwhelming. However, Seattle does face stacked boxes at a higher rate(6th in NFL), and New England's defense rarely have stacked boxes. A stacked box is 7+ men in the box, and the Patriots only stack the box 21.3% of the time(20th in NFL). Will the Patriots conform to how teams have stopped Seattle's run game the rest of the season and load the box a bit more?
New England's regular season run defense was solid, borderline top 10 in most categories. They were:
13th in yards per run play, 10th in 10+ yard rushes allowed, 14th in stuff rate, 11th in EPA, 9th in yards over expected, and 23rd in yards allowed before contact.
In the postseason, New England has turned it up a notch. They're allowing 0.9 less yards per carry, a stuff rate that has increased by 5.6%, an EPA per rush that has gone down -0.14 points, along with their absurd -0.83 RYOE/attempt differential, and have allowed 0.34 less yards before contact on each rush.
They have been dominant in their playoff run defense, winning the rushing battle in all 3 postseason victories. However, the Patriots have faced below average rushing units. Statistically, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers run games were better than Seattle's in the regular season, with Houston's being a bit worse.
Seattle's run game hasn't been impressive outside of the back-to-back performances against San Francisco, who has a well below average run defense. Yet no matter how the run game behaves, the Seahawks will continue to run the ball. I highly doubt they abandon the run game in the Super Bowl, no matter how the game plays out.
I believe New England can seriously shut down Seattle's run game, it's just a matter of how they need to do it. Will the Pats have to stack the box, or can they continue their success with lighter boxes? If they need to stack the box to do so, will this open up Seattle's passing game? If the Patriots shut them down, does it change anything in Seattle's minds? I doubt it.
Seattle's passing gameplan:
The Seahawks run play-action 27.5% of the time. Much of Sam Darnold's success comes from outside of the pocket, where he becomes incredibly accurate and seemingly more comfortable slinging the rock. The difference in some of Darnold's play-action versus dropback passing is certainly noticeable. When using play-action:
0.39 increase in EPA per play
3.06 yard increase in average depth of target
An extra 0.79 seconds in time to throw
4.03 more yards per attempt
The completion percentage isn't much different, but the production for Seattle's offense increases drastically when using play-action.
We know Seattle will run the ball heavily. And we know they will like to use play-action off of their consistent run game to create bigger play opportunities. If the Seahawks struggle to run the ball, which the stats indicate they likely will, their offense will have to rely on explosive plays to put up points.
The best way for New England to prevent these big plays, besides not letting Rashid Shaheed and Jaxon Smith-Njigba beat them deep over the top, is to not allow Sam Darnold to leave the pocket. Whether a play-action roll out or Darnold just breaking out of the pocket, it's in New England's best interest to keep Darnold contained. They should use Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson standing up on the edge to force Darnold to stay in the pocket and throw over the middle with pressure coming from Christian Barmore and Milton Williams.
Speaking of Barmore and Williams, this is the Patriots biggest strength in Super Bowl LX. The Seattle interior offensive line isn't awful, but they are definitely the weaker part of the team, and New England's interior defensive line is their strength.
Williams and Barmore have combined for 16 pressures, 3 sacks, and 4 TFLs this postseason, even showing out against an incredible Denver IOL. Not only will this duo, as well as NT Khyiris Tonga(2 pressures, 1 sack, 2 TFLs), be apart of New England's attempt to shut down the run game, but if they accomplish their attempt, it gives NE an advantage. Even if Seattle still runs 50% of the time, stopping the run game will force Seattle to throw from disadvantageous situations, specifically 3rd and long. This allows New England's pass rush to shine, as it has all postseason.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
To me, JSN is the only clear elite, superstar level player in this game. Yes, I know all three categories are about the Seattle offense, which is funny, considering Seattle's defense and the New England offense are the best sides of the ball in this game.
But with Smith-Njigba being such a catalyst for Seattle's offense, and their run game being average, it's worth offering up suggestions on how New England will go about limiting his impact. Let's brainstorm:
1). Christian Gonzalez could travel.
New England does have an All-Pro at CB. According to Patriots CB Carlton Davis, who was interviewed by Tyler Dunne via golongtd.com, this is what the Patriots will do. Man-to-man on JSN. Now, Gonzalez could follow and it may not be man-to-man. New England will not want to get over the top, so they may just bracket JSN with Gonzalez consistently following. Or they could play more 2 high than they typically do.
I wouldn't hate this strategy for the Patriots. Gonzalez is arguably their best player. You might as well ask him to earn that (future) paycheck that comes with being an All-Pro CB in the biggest moment.
2). Blitz. A lot.
This plays on the theme of being aggressive. Especially if New England takes an early lead, you might want to be aggressive defensively. Man coverage, blitzes, pressure on Darnold. Being able to get extra pressure on Darnold is a way of slowing down JSN, as the Seattle passing game takes a massive step back when under pressure.
EPA per dropback drops from 12th to 26th.
Completion percentage drops from 7th to 11th.
Passer rating drops from 11th to 21st.
Yards per attempt drops from 2nd to 15th.
Darnold also led the NFL in turnovers this year. Darnold's play drops off drastically when put under pressure. Blitzing may be worth the risk for New England.
Also, when Seattle decides to line Smith-Njigba up in the backfield, you put JSN in a predicament. He's not back there to pass protect. So either force him to block or give up a short completion behind the line of scrimmage. That's a win-win for New England.
3). Bracket.
I briefly mentioned this when talking about Seattle's pass attack. This is something we've seen whenever Justin Jefferson has appeared in the playoffs with Minnesota. He's the clear offensive weapon that you have to neutralize. Jefferson has just 12 receptions for 105 yards in two playoff games. Put two guys on Smith-Njigba and then press man the other receiver.
This could be dangerous, as the other receiver is Rashid Shaheed. Seattle hasn't utilized him that well in the passing game, but he's good for a deep shot or two with his speed. Maybe you use Christian Gonzalez to bracket JSN, or maybe you bracket JSN then use your top corner to play the 1-on-1 matchup.
This method could open up the middle of the field. TE A.J Barner and RB Kenneth Walker are no slacks in the passing game, and if there's a weakness in the New England defense, it's their LBs in coverage. Taking away Smith-Njigba would open up the passing game in the middle of the field, it's just a matter of if those guys can take advantage (on both sides).
We're adding a section to the preview! A quick list of who I believe to be the top 10 players in Super Bowl LX. Just the guys to take notice of, as I believe they will all have a major impact on how the game is decided.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
CB Devon Witherspoon
CB Christian Gonzalez
DL Leonard Williams
QB Drake Maye
DT Milton Williams
DT Christian Barmore
DT Byron Murphy
LB Ernest Jones IV
DE Demarcus Lawrence
Seattle has All-Pro talent on every level of their defense, and New England will have to rely on Drake Maye finding his way around the pocket to have legitimate offensive success.
Prediction:
Seahawks 20, Patriots 13
I think people are overstating how poor Drake Maye's been in the playoffs. He was fantastic in the 2nd half of both the Chargers and Texans games., and although he did not play well against Denver in the AFCCG, Maye still won New England the game with his legs. But despite how much I love Maye, I think this will be a rough experience for him. His offensive line has not held up well recently, and Maye loves to hold the ball in the pocket to attack downfield. You could say, "Silly Drake! Just get rid of the ball quicker! Who cares if you have to check it down?!" And to that I would respond, "no!" New England does not have the receiver to thrive after the catch, and Seattle's defense eats checkdowns for breakfast. They will swallow up and break up lots of those checkdowns.
Now, checking the ball down or throwing it away is better than taking a sack or fumbling in the pocket, but I don't think Maye should throw away his identity of downfield success just to avoid turnovers. This being said, I would be surprised if Maye escaped the game turnover free. With the pressure, and also the danger of throwing short against Seattle's defense, I expect the Seahawks to force multiple turnovers.
This being said, as already mentioned, Sam Darnold had the most turnovers in the NFL this season. Even if Maye and the Patriots get got a couple times, it's not impossible for the same to happen to Seattle. I truly think this game comes down to who can win the turnover battle.
This article was kind of written from the perspective of how the Patriots can win. But don't get it twisted, it played out this way because Seattle has the overwhelming advantage in terms of each teams' roster. The 'matchups to watch' were the matchups I thought could swing the game, aka, where is it possible for New England to gain an advantage.
I didn't discuss the NE offense versus the SEA defense because it's mostly just going to be how Maye can respond to pressure(he was the best in the NFL against pressure in the regular season).
I think Seattle will get a couple explosive plays, likely from Rashid Shaheed(whether on a return or deep ball), that get them in scoring position. I believe New England will largely struggle to move the ball, but eventually find decent field position. They won't find the redzone enough to win.
Super Bowl MVP: Demarcus Lawrence - 2 sacks, 1 FF, 2 TFLs
Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!
Comments