Week 4 Preview - 49ers vs Broncos
The San Francisco 49ers (3-0) stay at Levi's Stadium for a third straight week to take on the Denver Broncos (2-1). The game is at 1:25 PST.
Injury Report
Broncos:
LB Dondrea Tillman is OUT with a hamstring injury.
No other broncos have a game designation and are all expected to play.
49ers:
DE Nick Bosa is OUT with a calf injury.
DT James Thompson Jr is OUT with an ankle injury.
DE Keion White is listed as questionable with a hamstring issue. He did not practice on Wed/Thurs, and was limited on Friday.
LB Jaden Dugger is listed as questionable with a shoulder issue. He was limited in practice on Friday.
LB Dre Greenlaw is listed as questionable with a quad issue. He did not practice on Wed/Thurs, and was limited on Friday.
WR Mike Evans is listed as questionable with a ribs issue. He did not practice on Wed/Thurs, and was limited on Friday.
EDGE Romello Height(hand) was limited throughout the week, but no other 49ers have a game designation and are all expected to play.
Matchups to Watch
49ers weapons against man coverage
Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph runs man at a top 5 rate in the NFL, along with a top 5 blitz rate. Joseph leaves defenders in one on one situations quite often.
It helps when you trust your pass rush to get home, along with having the best CB in the NFL in Patrick Surtain II.
The Rams offense was able to operate well in Week 3, but the 49ers do not have a classic man beater such as Davante Adams. The availability of Mike Evans will play a big role in this matchup.
But even Evans isn't a typical man beater. He can win against man coverage because of his size and ball skills, but he won't separate across the field as well as Davante Adams can. Of course, you still want Evans available to have his presence on the outside.
Kyle Shanahan's main task when gameplanning for Denver's defense was likely looking for ways to create looks for George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
It's hard to detail exactly how Shanahan could go about this, but I find this design by Rams head coach Sean McVay to be familiar, and one we could see from the 49ers on Sunday. Isolating the Broncos' linebackers and forcing them to cover Kittle and McCaffrey is likely the best way for the 49ers pass attack to operate.
Denver's corners are almost exclusively on the perimeter, or following in man coverage, and former 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga is often lingering in the middle of the field, making middle of the field throws difficult at times. Forcing the second level of the Broncos defense to guard what is in front of them is how the 49ers can do the most damage.
And, with or without Evans, it will be interesting to see how the 49ers deploy speed at the WR position. They recently signed veteran WR Brandin Cooks to the active roster, who joins Jordan Watkins and Jacob Cowing as receivers with some speed.
How will Cooks be used? How does the backend of Denver's defense respond to speed?
Seeing whether or not the 49ers can separate against Pat Surtain and Riley Moss, or at least stretch the field, will dictate their ability to move the ball.
The ground game
The Broncos run defense thus far:
5.1 ypc (30th)
+0.17 EPA per rush (32nd)
11.8% stuff rate (26th)
+1.46 RYOE per attempt (32nd)
They have not been great and have had a bit of a tackling issue.
The 49ers run game has not been the best on the eyes, but statistically:
5.1 ypc (4th)
+0.08 EPA per rush (3rd)
8.8% stuffed rate (2nd - as in 2nd lowest(a good thing))
+0.10 RYOE per attempt (9th)
Also holding a 50% success rate(3rd) and 12 explosive runs(5th).
You would think the 49ers could at least stay ahead of the sticks with the ground game and be able to negate the Broncos elite pass defense a bit. With San Francisco's dominate pasing game, how can they not win this game?
Well, Week 4 may be an opportunity for Denver to find success on he ground.
Through 3 weeks:
3.6 ypc (29th)
-0.08 EPA per rush (19th)
13.2% stuffed rate (8th!)
-0.30 RYOE per attempt (26th)
32.4% success rate (29th)
6 explosive runs (26th)
Denver's RB room has been banged up, and Bo Nix has had just 4 designed runs. The offensive line is still strong, but the running backs have not been holding their own. The Broncos are dead last in yards after contact. But there may be hope for Denver this week.
The 49ers numbers are not the worst, but keep in mind the injuries they have up front:
3.7 ypc (10th)
-0.13 EPA per rush (11th)
17.6% stuff rate (12th)
-0.37 RYOE per attempt (7th)
And just 3 explosive runs allowed(2nd). DC Raheem Morris has done a good job with what he has, and Fred Warner is the best defender in the NFL.
The 49ers have done well so far, but are far from perfect. The Rams ran all over them in Week 1. It will really be up to Denver's personnel for whether or not they have success on the ground. You see the injury report, but that does not include DT CJ West also being out.
Six of the nine defensive lineman that were active for San Francisco in Week 3 were not on active rosters in Week 1, and the same should be true this week.
A lot of statistics to say; Denver has a chance to get their ground game going, but San Francisco could dominate the entire game if they operate on the ground.
With Denver's pass rush and performance against play-action so far this season, the 49ers won't just be able to run to set up the pass, their run game will actually have to be the driving force of the offense. The run game has been spotty so far, but as the stats indicate, there has been success. Will the 49ers be able to consistently find 5 yard gains against the Broncos?
Controlling time of possession could swing the outcome in this game. The 49ers best rushing performance came in Week 1, the only game in which they won the time of possession battle. If Denver can run the ball effectively, especially with Bo Nix, there might be more opportunities for explosive plays to WRs Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton. Denver is 22nd in explosive play rate thus far, a limiting factor in their offense.
49ers pass rush
Denver has a fantastic offensive line, and Bo Nix rarely gets sacked. Partially because he abandons the pocket so frequently, but the fact still stands. It's hard to bring Nix down.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are down their best pass rusher and are just 24th in pressure rate. Without Nick Bosa, Raheem Morris upped the blitz rate in Week 3, from around 15% to 27%. It did not exactly result in more pressure, but blitzing still speeds up the quarterback's internal clock.
Nix moves on from reads fairly quickly. Sometimes he does it so quick, the routes that are meant to be hit haven't even begun to break. Again, Nix is hard to sack. He moves on quickly and is a great athlete.
But the 49ers can do their best to contain him in the pocket and force him to run into pressure, scheming blitzes so Nix can't escape outside.
Nix is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when under pressure.
33.3% CMP (29th)
-0.99 EPA per dropback (32nd)
2.4 YPA (30th)
11.5 rating (32nd)
It's quite bad.
And Nix isn't much better when blitzed, in fact, he might be worse! Nix has seen blitzes 38 times this season, 39% of his dropbacks.
38.9% CMP (31st)
-0.44 EPA per dropback (28th)
4.4 YPA (31st)
41.3 rating (31st)
I expect Raheem Morris to once again up the aggression, forcing Nix to make sped-up decisions. I doubt Morris wants to find out what this 49ers pass rush looks like when rushing just four, because I doubt that ends successfully. Morris will have to trust his defense in our last thing to watch.
49ers tackling
A fourth matchup to watch! This one just felt too relevant to have as only a footnote.
Out of 93 Bo Nix pass attempts, just 21 have exceeded 10 air yards. He is 25th in air yards per attempt, at 6.5. The passing game has been full of quick game and checkdowns, meaning all defenses have to do is make tackles underneath to limit Denver's offense.
I mentioned their explosive play rate. It is not great, at 8.5%. And it's mostly because Nix doesn't push the ball downfield.
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has allowed the 2nd lowest explosive play rate, right behind Seattle. Just 1.8% of opponent's plays have been "explosives." With the way Denver operates their offense, and Nix's inconsistencies under pressure, the 49ers can shut them down as long as they do not miss tackles.
Nix already throws short quite often, but assuming we see more pressure from the 49ers in the form of blitzes, the pressure will be on San Francisco to make tackles short of the sticks.
Now, despite some great defensive numbers from the 49ers, they are not an elite unit. Arizona was able to stay ahead of the sticks in Week 3 against the 49ers. Non-explosive gains, no crazy run game numbers, but they stayed positive, making it easy to convert 3rd or 4th downs.
But again, with Nix's struggles under pressure, the 49ers may find it easier to get off the field on 3rd downs.
It may seem simple, but if San Francisco doesn't miss tackles, the Denver offense will struggle, and their best chance at success is replicating Arizona's gameplan from a week ago. Even that took multiple missed PATs from the 49ers and a garbage time drive to make it a one score game.
Prediction:
49ers 26, Broncos 20
This will be a close game. And it will be interesting to see how much the Denver pass rush effects the 49ers pass game.
But outside of their pass defense, I just see too many holes on the Broncos through 3 weeks to not pick the 49ers, who have put together 12 great quarters of football, as opposed to the Broncos four total quarters.
I see the 49ers offensive line holding up, and Purdy creating more positives for the 49ers offense than Nix does for Denver's. It will likely come down to who does not turn the ball over. This should be the best defense Purdy has seen, and I will not be surprised to see him throw an interception. Can Raheem Morris force Nix, who has 6 turnovers already, to give the 49ers defense some gifts?
If the 49ers have success on the ground, the offense should look dominate once again. And this should limit the amount of possessions in which Denver has the opportunity to pull of their patented 4th quarter comeback.
That does it for our 49ers Week 4 preview!
Let me know your thoughts on this Week 4 matchup, which matchups you think will have the biggest impact on Sunday, and your Week 4 predictions!
I have posted my full Week 4 predictions for the entire NFL slate on my Twitter/X, @GridironGoldM_.
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