4 in, 4 out - Rising In and Falling Out of the NFL Postseason
For over 30 consecutive seasons, at least 4 NFL teams who did not make the playoffs in the prior season, make playoffs the following season.
Which means 4 teams across the NFL will fall out of the postseason.
This was a very difficult assignment. So let's discuss what "criteria" I used in an attempt to narrow the pool of teams.
But first, one of the reasons this was difficult was simply because I believe the options are fairly wide open this season. It seems like a year where more than four swaps will occur, especially considering how good certain divisions are.
With where the AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, NFC North, and NFC West all stand, some good teams in those divisions might miss the playoffs due to having to face harder competition, and winning less games because of it.
Now, for the criteria.
One Score Game Record
The football bounces in funny ways, and these bounces are often what swings the result of a close game. While good teams know how to win close games, there is an element of luck to your record in one score games that does not always carry over year to year. Good football teams may know how to win close games, but great teams don't play in close games.
Some notable one score game records from 2025:
Broncos 11-2
Panthers 7-3
Steelers 7-3
Jaguars 6-3
Bears 7-4
Commanders 2-5
Chiefs 1-9
Ravens 2-5
Colts 3-7
It's not some guarantee for these records to magically flip, but you never know!
Turnovers
Turnover luck is very real to me.
Since 2020, out of the 10 teams that ranked top 2 in the NFL in turnovers, only 3 have ranked in the top 5 the following season. With 6 ranking outside the top 10.
Great defenses can withstand the fall-off, but even then, you might lose an extra game simply because that's a few additional possessions where the other team's offense has the ball instead of your offense.
You win the game by scoring more points than the other team. The easiest way to do that is to get as many chances to score as possible, while simultaneously limiting the opponent's possessions.
Here are notable turnover numbers, with their differential.
Bears: 1st with 33 turnovers (+22 - 1st)
Jaguars: 2nd with 31 turnovers (+13 - 3rd)
Jets: 32nd with 4 turnovers (-19 - 32nd)
Commanders: 31st with 10 turnovers (-13 - 31st)
Cowboys: 30th with 12 turnovers (-9 - 29th)
Vikings: 11th with 21 turnovers (-9 - 30th DIFFERENTIAL!)
The performance of the offense plays into the differential. I believe turnovers can flip so easily game by game, year by year. The only way to consistently do it, in my opinion, is with pass rush. Quarterbacks turn the ball over most, impacting their play is how you win the turnover battle. And even then, you just might not get the right bounces.
Overall Advanced Metrics
Advanced stats don't win games, production does. But advanced metrics can give us a better overall idea of how good a team actually is. With context of course, advanced stats help form the overall story better about how good a team can be, even year to year.
An example from 2025 is the Carolina Panthers. They made the playoffs, largely because they were in a bad division and won a lot of close games. But their advanced numbers don't look great. Of course, this can be wiped out by my next category.
Here are some notable teams that made the playoffs with some concerning advanced numbers:
Chargers - 24th in offensive EPA/play, 17th in success rate
Texans - 19th in offensive EPA/play, 28th in success rate
Eagles - 17th in offensive EPA/play, 23rd in success rate
Panthers - 26th in offensive EPA/play, 21st in success rate. 23rd in defensive EPA/play, 18th in success rate
49ers - 25th in defensive EPA/play, 28th in success rate
Packers - 22nd in defensive EPA/play, 20th in success rate
Steelers - 20th in defensive EPA/play, 15th in success rate
Bears - 19th in defensive EPA/play, 27th in success rate
And now for some teams that missed the playoffs with good advanced numbers:
Vikings - 6th defensive EPA/play, 11th in success rate
Saints - 10th defensive EPA/play, 5th in success rate
Chiefs - 12th defensive EPA/play, 13th in success rate
Lions - 14th defensive EPA/play, 6th in success rate. 6th offensive EPA/play, 13th in success rate
Cowboys - 5th offensive EPA/play, 5th in success rate
Colts - 7th offensive EPA/play, 6th in success rate
Now, as I will mention in the category below, this doesn't have to be consistent year to year, especially the negatives. Teams change.
Offseason Changes
Forget the numbers!
The people on the field, and the sidelines, matter more than the numbers, because this is who is affecting the numbers.
Yes, the Panthers have multiple indicators of perhaps not being as good as they were in 2025. But they also added DE Jaelan Phillips and All-Pro LB Devin Lloyd. Those are real difference makers.
However, in terms of the advanced stats, I do think there are many reasons to believe they can carry over years. If you keep the core of your roster or coaching staff, there is a good chance where you rank in advanced metrics is consistent.
But, like advanced stats, this needs context.
Who came and went? Did you fix your biggest weakness by adding an All-Pro player, or are you running it back with the same guy? Is there a new man with the headset on?
These are the things that matter most. What actually changed? Not what hypothetically will or won't change.
Injuries
We have all experienced a player getting injured, one that drastically effects the outlook of your season. Of course, injuries are completely volatile. You never know who will get hit next, or how hard. And while every team deals with injuries, some suffer more than others, and it's impossible to truly pinpoint a reason. Hence why people often use the term "injury luck."
So to account for injuries, a massive part of the game, we made this a part of our criteria. And to look at who suffered the most, and least, in 2025, I pull from FTN Fantasy, who has their AGL metric, adjusted games lost.
Here is FTN's explanation of AGL:
Adjusted games lost doesn’t just add up total injuries. It accounts for both absent players and those playing at less than 100%, and it specifically measures injuries to expected starters and important situational players rather than little-used backups. As such, AGL estimates the impact of injuries on teams and provides a comparable total that often succinctly explains why teams improved or declined from one year to the next.
It may be imperfect, but it's a better way to track which teams were truly impacted by injuries.
Here are some notable teams that were the least effected by injuries:
Patriots - 1st
Eagles - 2nd
Seahawks - 3rd
Chiefs - 4th
Steelers - 6th
Jaguars - 7th
And the most effected:
Chargers - 27th
49ers - 28th
Commanders - 30th
Lions - 31st
Yes, some teams may be more consistently "injury prone" than others. There is likely a systemic issue within some organizations, even if it is hard to pinpoint. But in the end, football is a physical game and results in nasty and long-term injuries. And they occur at random, resulting in injury luck. And luck changes year to year.
Hopefully I have explained enough why we look at this "criteria."
There is so much luck involved with football. So much to the point where it is cruel, considering how much time is put into developing players and creating rosters and coaching staffs.
These different categories were just a way of trying to view who may have gotten more of that good luck in 2025, and providing the knowledge that luck literally means random fortune. We wanted to display some of this context before getting into the 4 playoff swaps.
And now let me say that, in the end, the criteria is just a supporting guide, not some black and white rulebook to tell who will fall out, or rise into, the postseason. These obviously were not the only factors being taken in account. Teams play different schedules, have different strengths, and different schemes and strategies.
In the end, who I believe to make and miss the playoffs is an opinion, with some of these facts backing up my opinion.
Now, which are the four new teams I believe will make the postseason in 2026?
Detroit Lions
2025: 9-8, 4th place in NFC North
Detroit had a winning record in 2025 and was last in their division. And despite major injuries, particularly to their secondary, they had the second best defense of the Dan Campbell era.
My biggest question about the Lions is their secondary. Their current starters at CB are D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin, with rookie 5th rounder Keith Abney in the slot.
Their safety duo is the best in football, with two All-Pro players in Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. The problem with those two is they are coming off of very serious injuries, and we really do not know when they will return. It sounds as if, at best, they will stay on the PUP list and return after a month. At best. Without those two, we are looking at Chuck Clark and Thomas Harper. A big difference.
And the secondary concerns extrapolate because, outside of Aidan Hutchinson, I don't see anybody on the defensive front who I am confident in effecting the opposing QB.
So, with all this negativity, why should the Lions get better?
Well for one, outside of losing Al-Quadin Muhammad, they were in the same situation last season. The difference is they drafted Derrick Moore 44th overall, and Joseph and Branch may finish the season this year.
And I am incredibly confident in their run defense. With Jack Campbell, Derrick Barnes, and even Malcolm Rodriguez at linebacker, Detroit is stout on the second level. And a full season of Alim McNeil, who is now a full year removed from his ACL tear, next to Tyleik Williams in his second season, the Lions have the bodies on the interior to stifle opponent's run games.
And Detroit's offense has been elite for years, and may be better in 2026. Sam LaPorta is healthy, and they've upgraded the offensive line. The weapons are elite, and there is no tanigble reason for Jared Goff's play to fall off.
I expect Detroit to have an elite offense, and their defense should be average, as it was in 2025. If health is on there side, which it very much was not a season ago, all Detroit needs to do is win one extra game to make the postseason.
Baltimore Ravens
2025: 8-9, 2nd place in AFC North
A missed FG away from winning the division a season ago, Baltimore should be wildly improved in 2026.
The Ravens were the 15th most effected team according to FTN's AGL metric. Notables who missed time were Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike, LB Teddye Buchanon, and Lamar Jackson himself missed 5 games last season. Not only will these good players be back and healthy, but Baltimore added more talent in the offseason.
Defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Zion Young were brought in on the defensive front, along with veteran Calaias Campbell. And after losing midseason acquisition S Alohi Gilman in free agency, Baltimore replaced him with Jaylinn Hawkins, who can fill that role perfectly.
Offensively, the interior offensive line was bad in 2025, and got worse after losing C Tyler Linderbaum in free agency. But the Ravens used the 14th overall pick on RG Vega Ioane, and brought back LG John Simpson. Center Ethan Pocic was a good replacement signing as well, although he is coming off an achilles tear.
Baltimore really did their best to put the trenches together this offseason, trying to return to a team that can win a dog fight in the postseason.
But perhaps the most notable additions were within the coaching staff.
The Ravens staff and play-calling was fairly bland the past couple of seasons. While success is TBD, Baltimore should look anything but bland.
New head coach Jesse Minter was the Chargers defensive coordinator for the last two seasons and called two top 10 defenses with Los Angeles. He has a skillset similar to old Ravens DC and Super Bowl winning HC Mike Macdonald, being able to get the best out of every weapon he has defensively.
And Minter brought in 30 year old Bears OC Declan Doyle, who will bring a fresh look of playcalling for Lamar Jackson, including lots more motion than the Ravens have seen recently.
Baltimore plays in a good division. But nobody is truly an elite Super Bowl contender. That's supposed to be the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson is a 2x MVP, one of the greatest 17 game performers I have ever seen. If he is healthy, the Ravens should coast to a playoff spot. They were a game away during a funky 2025 season. They have added fresh bodies and fresh minds. Winning an extra one score game or two will put Baltimore over the top.
Minnesota Vikings
2025: 9-8, 3rd place in NFC North
Minnesota used three different quarterbacks in 2025 and still finished 0.5 game out of the final Wild Card spot.
There was a roster shuffling, and it make take a few weeks into the season to determine whether it ends up being a net positive or net negative.
The Vikings added some secondary depth, with veteran CB James Pierre, along with 5th round CB Charles Demmings and 3rd round S Jakobe Thomas. They did lose S Harrison Smith to retirement.
They added to the front seven through the draft, with 2nd rounder LB Jake Golday, along with DTs Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange.
And of course, the big addition is QB Kyler Murray. The problem with Kyler is the fact that he has played one full season in the past four years, and has never played in an offensive system like the one HC Kevin O'Connell runs. Murray should be an upgrade to what Minnesota dealt with in 2025. The Vikings just need some sort of consistency, so Kyler needs to be on the field.
The biggest loss, outside of Harrison Smith, was trading DE Jonathan Greenard, who's been an incredibly productive pass rush for the last 5 seasons. Not only will Minnesota need 2024 1st rounder Dallas Turner to up his production, but they need to find a source of depth behind Turner.
However, DC Brian Flores can be counted on to make up for the loss. He's a maniac blitz caller, and incredibly creative with how he matches his blitzes with coverages. Flores has called top 10 defenses each of the last two seasons. You just have to hope the loss of Harrison Smith in the middle of the defense doesn't cost the Vikings.
The Vikings are a team who should have a rock solid defense, no matter where you look statistically. They just need to not lead the NFL in giveaways this season, like they did in 2025. Again, they were just one win away from reaching the postseason. And Minnesota went 4-2 in this division with three different quarterbacks.
It really is hard to give a reason more concrete than having an upgrade at the most important position. I have a difficult time believing that won't translate to more than 1 win, especially with the roster staying fairly strong, and with one of the better coordinators in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs
2025: 6-11, 3rd place in AFC West
Is this just because they are the Chiefs? Perhaps.
Does having Patrick Mahomes as your QB matter when it comes to making the playoffs. Definitely.
Kansas City is the popular example for why we consider a teams' one score game record "luck" in recent years. The 2024 AFC Champions went 11-1 in one score games that year, just to turn around and go 1-9 last season.
Between this and what I believe is an upgraded roster, it's hard to keep a team like Kansas City out of the postseason.
Yes, the Chiefs lost their top three players in their secondary. And LB Leo Chenal.
However, if a peek at my Buying Stock article, you'll see why I think the Chiefs defense may have a chance to be just as good, if not better, than where they ranked in 2025.
Year 2 CB Nohl Williams is a star in the making, and they selected CB Mansoor Delane at 6th overall in April. I feel comfortable with their cornerback room, at least as comfortable as you can feel after losing two star level starters.
But the big potential upgrades come up front. Next to Chris Jones at defensive tackle, Kansas City has added NT Khyiris Tonga and 1st rounder Peter Woods. And their defensive ends should be much improved, with Ashton Gillotte entering Year 2, and drafting a dynamic pass rusher in R Mason Thomas at pick 40.
Kansas City's defense ranked right around 10th in the more notable categories(points, yards, EPA) but their pass rush numbers didn't show up in the same fashion.
KC finished 18th in pressure rate and 19th in sack rate.
I expect the Chiefs to finish better in these categories in 2026.
Offensively, the only year the Chiefs have finished outside the top 10 in offense by EPA/play in the Mahomes era was 2025. They finished 11th.
Now, by other metrics, Kansas City also didn't have a top 10 offense in 2024, so I am cherrypicking a bit here. But every other year KC has ranked firmly in the top 10.
Historically, Patrick Mahomes conducts top 10 offenses with ease. And the Chiefs went out and signed a Super Bowl MVP who will be the best running back Mahomes has ever lined up next to. Kenneth Walker has never been a bell cow back, but we know he can provide explosive plays, and the Chiefs offensive line is rock solid. Walker is known for abandoning running lanes at times, but Kansas City's O-Line gets incredible push at the line of scrimmage. Yards should come easy for Walker
The Chiefs are the Chiefs. It really might be that simple. But beyond that, I expect an improve defensive front backed by a consistent offense that can create explosive plays through the deep ball and the run game. Win a few one score games and Kansas City is right back in the postseason.
NFC South
2025: Panthers won division
You will see why I have this label shortly. And maybe I'm taking the easy way out by not naming a team, but I already gave you the tradition four, so I'm counting this!
This is more about the fact of who I believe will fall out of the playoffs, and less about the team replacing them.
I believe the NFC South will have a new champion, but the division will only produce one playoff team. So while the new champion will count towards one of the four new playoff teams, it felt against the spirit of the exercise to count this. Plus I still can't decide between the Buccaneers and Saints for who takes the division.
Let's briefly discuss these two teams.
Buccaneers:
Their defensive front is incredibly strong. Thank goodness they brought Vita Vea back. Adding Rueben Bain Jr through the draft and having Al-Quadin Muhammad as depth is pretty incredible.
Offensively, there is talent all throughout the depth chart. It is just a matter of Baker Mayfield's health, and how he meshes with the offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. When Baker plays for a good OC, especially with the talent Tampa has on offense, the Bucs can light up the scoreboard.
And the Bucs were ravaged by injuries throughout all of 2025. It seemed everybody on offense, outside of TE Cade Otton, was banged up.
I think it really comes down to the Buccaneers coaching staff in 2026, but they should be better, and finished at 8-9, the same record as the division winner.
Saints:
With DC Brandon Staley, the Saints had a very solid defense in 2025. 6th in yards per play, 11th in EPA/play, 5th in sack rate. The problem is, their overall pass rush wasn't great, and they lost Bryan Bresee. But they did add the best blitzing LB in the NFL in Kaden Elliss.
But the offensive changes are the most notable to what could win New Orleans the division. Having a full season of Tyler Shough changes things. Especially when you add in 1st round pick Jordyn Tyson(who is currently hurt), RB Travis Etienne, LG David Edwards, and hopefully get center Erik McCoy back. The infrastructure is fairly top tier, and Kellen Moore is a very good play caller.
The Saints also get to play a 4th place schedule, the 2nd weakest across the NFL, based on opponents 2025 records. This likely will not hold, but it's worth noting.
It seems as though the NFC South will come down to who can win the most games within the division, and I believe this especially applies to New Orleans.
We have the Lions, Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs all rising into the postseason. Plus a new NFC South champion.
So who are they replacing?
Carolina Panthers
2025: 8-9, 1st place in NFC South
The Panthers won the worst division in football in 2025. They massively overachieved by making the postseason, and even winning 8 total games. Seven of the Panthers eight victories came in a one score game.
Carolina was the prototypical scrappy team that is was on the come-up, poised to make the jump the following season. The Panthers just won more games than expected. And, even though their roster should be improved, I think there is a good chance Carolina falls out of the postseason.
The Panthers offense is getting Pro Bowl RG Robert Hunt back, along with a full season of Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker starting at WR. Defensively, they added All-Pro LB Devin Lloyd and DE Jaelan Phillips.
The Panthers should be better this season.
But as we've mentioned, being better does not always translate into winning more games. There is a very good chance the Panthers are a better overall team, but only win 7 or 8 games and miss the postseason. Especially considering their schedule should be more difficult this season.
None of the Panthers metrics, the ones that we discussed indicate how good of a team you are, from 2025 are positive. In fact, none are even in the top half of the NFL. Yards per play, EPA per play, success rate, offensively and defensively. They weren't even in the top half of the league in wins!
Again, the roster is improved, but how much does that effect their wins and losses?
Knocking the Panthers out of the postseason is a fairly easy decision. I still like Carolina, but it would surprise me if they won back-to-back division titles. Remember, they only won this division last year because Atlanta beat New Orleans in Week 18! Carolina won the division via a tiebreaker that was decided by two other teams!
Chicago Bears
2025: 11-6, 1st place in NFC North
The feel good story of last season, Caleb Williams and the Bears had late game magic in 2025. Seven of their eleven victories, 8 of 12 if you count the postseason, were one score games.
Offensively, even though Chicago's personnel may be worse, I still think the upside is a top 5 unit. Year three for Caleb Williams, year two in this offense, with an efficient run game and exciting weapons, this is an explosive group. Even without Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman and WR D.J. Moore out of the building.
My problem with Chicago lies within their defense.
Despite leading the NFL in turnovers and turnover differential, by a fairly wide margin, they ranked well below average defensively.
19th in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, 27th in pressure rate, 32nd in time to pressure, 29th in yards per play against the run, 26th in stuff rate. Chicago was legitimately bad at everything, outside of forcing turnovers.
And their biggest upgrades defensively include 6th round DT Jordan van den Berg, DT Neville Gallimore, and DT Kenatvious Street. Yes, they added LB Devin Bush, S Coby Bryant(who will miss most of the season), and S Dillon Thieneman, but those only make up for the losses of Tremaine Edmunds, Kevin Byard, and Jaquan Brisker.
The defensive front is horrific. No pressure will be applied, and they will struggle to stop the run.
Turnovers are a high variance statistic, as discussed. It's unlikely to carry over year to year. So when you rank 1st in turnovers and still have a bad defensive by all other metrics, then fail to upgrade any positions in the offseason, I have no choice but to believe your defense will be one of the worst in the NFL.
I truly do believe this about Chicago. Their defense is too poor to compete in the NFC North, let alone the NFC as a whole. The Bears can still be a decent team, but I just think there are too many good teams in the NFC for this defense to make the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers
2025: 9-6-1, 2nd place in NFC North
Perhaps a more bold suggestion, as Green Bay has repeatedly had a top 10 passing offense with Jordan Love, and a top 10 offense overall, really. However, also with Jordan Love, the Packers have never been more than a 7 seed for over three seasons.
The big question with Green Bay is defensively. It doesn't look to be some disaster, but they did not come in favorably on defense in 2025, even when Micah Parsons was healthy. 22nd in EPA/play and 20th in success rate is not a recipe for the postseason. And in terms of additions, I would describe them as uninspiring.
DT Javon Hargrave was brought in, perhaps he can rush the passer more effectively. But Green Bay shipped out DT Colby Wooden for LB Zaire Franklin, and was willing to do so because Wooden was a liability against the run. Hargrave does not change this. DT Chris McClellan was a 3rd rounder out of Missouri, but can he play the role of an NFL nose in year one? Green Bay also used a 4th rounder on Dani-Dennis Sutton, a defensive end.
I don't dislike these moves, but if the Packers are counting on rookies to play real roles, it is a bad situation. Can Lukas Van Ness have a Year 4 breakout as a pass rusher? I don't anticipate this happening either.
The defense is not bad. The safety duo is elite, even.
But the Packers need pass rush outside of Parsons, and I do not see it happening.
Green Bay went 0-5 once Parsons tore his ACL. They aren't getting him back until Week 6 at the earliest.
The Packers could be a good team that drops an extra game or two without Parsons, early in the season, and that is what takes them from their usual 7 seed to outside of the playoffs. Especially in a division such as the NFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2025: 10-7, 1st place in AFC North
Once again, Pittsburgh enters the season with a very solid roster and little holes to be worried about. Usually I'm on their side, I picked them to make the postseason last season.
And you could argue the Steelers got better this offseason, adding Jamel Dean to the secondary, Michael Pittman and Germie Bernard to the receiving room, and draft Max Iheanachor to play RT, on an already good offensive line.
I also loved the hiring of DC Patrick Graham, who should offer more creativity than Mike Tomlin defensively. So even with their underwhelming defensive metrics a year ago, 20th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate, the Steelers defensive depth chart looks good, and those metrics can be thrown out the window with a new coordinator in town.
There are, however, reasons to be cautious of the Steelers.
Seven of their ten victories in 2025 came in one score games, and they were very healthy last year, the 6th healthiest according to FTN's AGL metric. A new coaching staff, there's reason to believe a lot of those games flip the other way.
But my main concern about Pittsburgh is the offense.
A good offensive line, a good RB, a good TE room, and a few nice receivers. But nothing super explosive or elite. And you need explosive plays when your QB refuses to throw the ball downfield.
Aaron Rodgers was dead last in the NFL in air yards per attempt, by 0.6 yards. That is a lot in this context. He was also 30th under pressure by EPA/play. And he was last in time to throw, which summarizes his style of play in this day and age.
He simply does not push the ball down the field, and it truly limits the offense. Pittsburgh was able to escape this issue at times in 2025 because of RB Kenneth Gainwell, who was elite as a receiving back. But Gainwell left in free agency. And while I like Jaylen Warren, he does not provide quite the same impact as a receiver. The tools are there for Pittsburgh to have a good offense, but Rodgers is simply a limiting factor at this point in time.
With major offensive concerns, and playing in a fairly good division, it will be tough for Pittsburgh to reach the same threshold under new HC Mike McCarthy.
I think the defense needs to return to its truly elite days for Pittsburgh to make the postseason. It is hard to make the playoffs when one of your worst starters is at quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2025: 13-4, 1st place in AFC South
This is a combination of my personal self already being a bit lower on Jacksonville than the general public, as well as the Jaguars showing up consistently on the negative side of my criteria. We're trusting the science, folks.
Now, 6 out of 13 wins being one score games really is not that crazy. But one score games are one score games. Jacksonville also was extremely healthy last season, with Travis Hunter being the main guy who went down, and he didn't even have a full-time role last season. A top 5 healthiest team according to the AGL metric.
The defense is what concerns me in Jacksonville. Not only are they extremely thin, particularly up front, particularly when it comes to pass rush production, but they finished second in turnovers in 2025, third in TO differential. Again, we've discussed how turnovers are not consistent year to year, and that applies here once again, especially when you consider All-Pro LB Devin Lloyd accounted for six of those turnovers. Lloyd, of course, left for Carolina in free agency.
I have zero confidence in their turnover margin being so positive, or in any of their pass rushing depth. Maybe the latter won't matter. Maybe Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker both have elite 2026 seasons and the Jaguars are satisfied with 3.0 sacks from their rotation guys.
Offensively, I think Jacksonville will be just fine. Losing Travis Etienne is tough, but I'm confident his production will be replaced, at least on the ground. I trust Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence to produce an elite passing attack.
My big concerns are really the lack of change with Jacksonville. They essentially let Lloyd and Etienne walk, swapped interior defensive linemen in Maason Smith for Ruke Orhorhoro, which could provide a boost to the pass rush, and said "we're good." Well, I do not think the Jaguars are good.
I'm worried they have less impact players, and it will show up in a tough division. Jacksonville went 5-1 in this division last season, but two of those wins came against the Daniel Jones-less Colts. I have a hard time believing they'll find themselves at 5-1 in this division again.
Jacksonville should be a good team, but the defense is far from elite, especially if the turnover luck does not continue. Now, this may not matter. Jacksonville could lose three additional games and still make the postseason. I do not think the Jags are a bad squad, but I do think they could lose their playoff spot.
There we go. The five new teams that will make the playoffs in 2026, and 5 teams that will miss the playoffs in 2026.
Teams that missed the playoffs in 2025 that will make the playoffs in 2026:
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs
NFC South Champion - Buccaneers / Saints
Teams that made the playoffs in 2025 that will miss the playoffs in 2026:
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Now, let's make something clear. This is my opinion.
And even my opinion could change when I make my full season predictions, which includes going through the entire 272 game NFL schedule, and picking each and every game.
So yes, Bengals and Cowboys fans, your teams could still make the playoffs in my final prediction. Same with the Jaguars, Steelers, and Packers. Maybe even Chicago and Carolina.
I mentioned at the beginning of this lengthy article how this was a difficult assignment because there truly are so many choices. I felt as though there were at least three teams I left off that could easily make the postseason this year. And knocking teams out was just as hard, because what really is the difference between the Packers and the 49ers? Or the Jaguars and Broncos?
These answers were based on a variety of factors and, of course, largely come down to the individual's(me) opinion.
But thank you for reading through this article, it was a very fun thought exercise that allowed me to dive into different lanes before the start of the season!
Let me know who you think could fall out of the playoffs this season, or who your best bet is to rise up into the postseason!
Follow my Twitter/X, @GridironGoldM_, to let me know your thoughts! Or comment below!
Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!
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