Overreactions to Week 3 of the NFL Season
Another week of the NFL season, another opportunity to overreact to what we are witnessing.
Down to 5 undefeated and defeated teams this season.
It's about that time to panic.
Only a couple weeks left where we are truly overreacting to what we watch.
So let's overreact to Week 3 of the NFL season.
The New England Patriots have unsolvable problems
A 1-2 record is exactly where New England stood a year ago. And yet this season, it feels insurmountable.
Drake Maye looks closer to the worst QB in the league than the best, which is what I ranked him a season ago. And it doesn't help when the offensive line, run game, and receivers are not improved from a season ago. It's all so average, expect this year, Maye is dragging them down rather than lifting them up.
Defensively, it has not been awful, but it's far from enough. They've been closer to above average, but the offensive struggles make it look even worse.
It's hard to go into more detail, but the problem has been simple. Maye isn't operating at an acceptable level, and he's playing in poor conditions, under pressure at the 6th highest rate in the NFL!
New England's schedule isn't a gauntlet by any means, but it is not easy. And when you get beat to shreds by Jacksonville, a team that I may have underestimated, but they are far from true contenders, it's hard to say the Patriots will win many games.
The remaining schedule:
Bills (3-0) twice
vs Raiders (3-0)
Jets (1-2) twice
@ Bears (2-1)
Dolphins (0-3) twice
vs Packers (1-2)
@ Lions (2-1)
@ Chargers (0-3)
vs Vikings (3-0)
@ Chiefs (3-0)
vs Broncos (2-1)
I see four teams (BUF, MIN, KC, DEN) clearly superior to New England.
Six teams on New England's level: LV, NYG, CHI, GB, DET, LAC.
And then the Dolphins.
Can the Patriots turn it around to a point where you feel confident winning two of those final three games? That's the level of a contender.
As it currently stands, it is impossible for me to envision the Patriots improving to the point where they can be competitive with those upper echelon teams.
Klint Kubiak is an elite head coach and will have the Raiders pushing for the playoffs
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0! And Klint Kubiak keeps firing the boys up.
The run game has not been what Raiders fans may have envisioned, but Kubiak and Kirk Cousins have produced a top 10 passing attack and are top 10 in points thus far.
And again, they are 3-0! Winning by scores of 14, 12, and 8!
It's rare when the fan can tell the differences in coaching year to year. But you can with Las Vegas, in an overwhelmingly positive way.
I believe Kubiak's offensive philosophy is a big reason he is, and will continue to be, a successful head coach.
Look at the run game for the Raiders so far. It mirrors Seattle's of last year in the sense that they are statistically below average, and yet maintain one of the highest run play percentages in the NFL. He's consistent in this philosophy because he knows how it effects defense and benefits their passing offense, which, in the end, is where the majority of offensive production comes from.
Obviously, things are not quite this simple. We will see Kubiak's ability to adjust eventually. But your head coach having his core principles in place is always a good thing, especially when it uplifts your offense.
The basic functionality of the offensive, notably the offensive line, is so improved from a season ago. Now, the bar was low. Yet it has to feel good for Raiders fans, knowing your head coach has the ability to put a coaching staff together and is already elevating your organization 3 weeks into the regular season.
Now, when it comes to the postseason. I still believe this is a bit of a long shot. The division and overall schedule are quite tough. But you only have to go 7-7 the rest of the way! With Kubiak and co running a smooth operation, the Raiders have the ability to win close games and push themselves close than you'd think.
I'll leave their remaining schedule here and allow you to ponder:
vs Chiefs
@ Patriots
vs Bills
vs Rams
@ Jets
@ 49ers
vs Seahawks
@ Broncos
@ Browns
vs Chargers
vs Broncos
vs Titans
@ Cardinals
@ Chiefs
Hmmmmm...
An 0-3 bounce back is not in the cards for this years' Houston Texans
Just two teams this century have made the postseason after an 0-3 start.
2018 Houston Texans (11-5)
2025 Houston Texans (12-5)
Can my pick to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC three-peat?
Probably not.
The biggest issue is the fact that, through 3 games, Houston does not have a top 10 defense!
Now, the Bills, Bengals, and Colts are three very solid offenses.
And their run defense has been elite.
But they've allowed more points than the Tennessee Titans! From a reasonable perspective, Houston's defense is still great, but it has not dominated like it clearly needs to for the Texans to win games.
Houston needs this otherworldly defense because their offense is currently negative when it comes to both pass and run game efficiency. And from simply watching the games, how confident are we in the offensive line and C.J. Stroud?
The offensive line being banged up doesn't help either, but you'd hope Stroud would have more answers when he's pressured in Year 4.
Maybe all it takes for Houston to have an average offense is Nico Collins, who missed the last two weeks after a big Week 1 performance, which ended in 31 points for the Texans.
Another overreaction largely dependent on this team's schedule. Let's take a peek:
vs Cowboys
@ Tennessee
@ Jacksonville
vs Giants
@ Chargers
@ Browns
vs Colts
vs Ravens
@ Steelers
@ Commanders
vs Jaguars
@ Eagles
@ Packers
vs Titans
Not the easiest schedule I've ever seen, especially once you take into account how Houston has looked through 3 weeks. Even the "easy" games here won't be easy if the Texans continue to play like they have thus far.
The simple fact is, overcoming an 0-3 record is difficult. It requires a tight turnaround with very little room for error. Now, in this division, which they already have an 0-1 record in, Houston may have a chance, depending on the outcome of those Jacksonville matchups.
The Philadelphia Eagles' ceiling has a hard cap.
How confident are we in the Eagles' ability to get to the NFC Championship? This is what we've seen so far:
2 point win over Washington due to a missed 2pt conversion
4 point win over Tennessee, needing a game winning TD drive as time expired
20 point blowout loss to Chicago, facing QB3, 38 year old Case Keenum
Philadelphia came into this season with a stacked roster, and the results have been underwhelming.
Now, they still have a stacked roster. And heir division does not look very strong. And Jonathan Greenard missed the first two weeks, and was limited in Week 3. And they had to scramble to fix the issues on the interior offensive line, namely the Landon Dickerson injury problem which held them back in Week 1.
So I expect them to make the postseason.
Another and: Week 4 against the Rams will be a fantastic measuring stick test, especially considering Nick Sirianni is 4-0 against Los Angeles as head coach of the Eagles.
The offense has been better than last season, but it's just not great. Below average in everything outside of rushing efficiency, even the run game hasn't been great. Despite Sean Mannion, who comes from a branch of the Shanahan tree, taking over as the offensive coordinator, they are still dead last in play-action rate. Hurts still prefers to throw down the sidelines, and the operation is not clean down to down nor drive to drive. They seem to lack an identity.
Defensively, it's not time to doom, even if the unit is underperforming compared to preseason expectations. But I do have some concerns.
The safety play has not been up to snuff. They recently signed veteran slot corner Kenny Moore, and I expect Cooper DeJean to see more safety reps as Philly attempts to get their best 11 on the field. But DeJean has had a rough start to the season as well, just struggling to keep up in coverage.
There are just a few too many holes on the back seven as of now, including DeJean, the safeties, and Year 2 LB Jihaad Campbell.
The inconsistencies we have seen through 3 weeks can of course be ironed out throughout the season. But they look familiar in Philadelphia. In their non Super Bowl seasons, few adjustments are made and the Eagles end up collapsing down the stretch.
I still maintain it is impossible to say Philadelphia will miss the postseason, but speculating their ceiling being an early round exit seems reasonable through 3 weeks.
The AFC North will be an ugly dogfight
Through 3 weeks:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 2-1 overall, 1-0 divisional, -7 point differential
Cincinnati Bengals: 2-1, 0-1, +17
Cleveland Browns: 2-1, 0-0, -17
Baltimore Ravens: 2-1, 0-0, +14
Once again, it appears the AFC North has several good teams and divisional matchups will be unpredictable. Across the NFL, divisional battles are always tighter than anticipated, simply because of the familiarity.
But it always seems a tad more radical in the AFC North.
Since 2023:
Steelers: 13-7 in division, 32-22 overall
Bengals: 7-12 in division, 26-28 overall
Browns: 7-11 in division, 21-33 overall
Ravens: 11-8 in division, 35-19 overall
These teams consistently beat up on each other, regardless of how good they are in a given season. And I anticipate this occurring again this season.
Who will win this division? I am sticking to my Ravens prediction, but who knows at this point.
The Bengals defense is much improved, top 10 in EPA/play through 3 weeks.
Cleveland still is strong defensively, with a two stars from their 2025 draft class.
Patrick Graham has Pittsburgh's defense playing well without Joey Porter Jr, and Aaron Rodgers just provided a vintage performance.
Jesse Minter and Baltimore's defense are moving well, and Lamar Jackson dominates with Zay Flowers in the lineup.
Truly the only bad unit between these four teams is the Cleveland Browns offense.
These teams will split their matchups and send two teams to the postseason, one at 11-6, the other at 10-7.
What else are you overreacting to at this point in the season, and how much does it differ from your preseason thoughts?
This is likely the final week of overreactions, depending on what occurs next week. We are approaching the territory of having too much information for things to be considered overreactions. This article will be replaced by a ranking or film review.
Let me know what else we should be overreacting to, or another topic you want me to cover. Follow my Twitter/X @GridironGoldM_ to reach out for ideas!
Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!
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