Overreactions to Week 1 of the 2026 NFL Season
16 games into the NFL season, let's overreact to what has happened in Week 1.
Most people will tell you Week 1 of the NFL season is irrelevant and has no bearing on the outcome of the entire season.
Well right now I am telling you that each game counts the same, and everything we just saw happen on Sunday, and Monday and Thursday, and even on a Wednesday, will repeat itself over the next 17 weeks.
Obviously, the majority of the "analysis" you will see early in the season is simply an overreaction to what we have seen so far, and will not be an accurate depiction of the season. Not only do teams change, but we simply lack context.
Not having the context of where each team, and player, stands currently among the NFL is what makes the early parts of the season so interesting.
So let's overreact to Week 1 of the NFL season.
Ben Johnson's dream for the Chicago Bears offense can come true
Johnson had a quote about a month ago where he said he wants "to have the highest scoring offense ever." Off to a great start, scoring 59 points in Week 1, with the best offense ever posting 37.9 points per game.
I don't know if they'll hit that, but it's not at all far fetched to say Chicago can have the highest scoring offense this year.
Scoring 59 points, with 552 yards at 7.9 yards per play. And they did this without Colston Loveland catching a single pass. A guy who I believed, once fully unlocked in Year 2, to be the key to having one of the best offenses in the NFL. They didn't even need his impact to produce like this!
I still stand on my opinion of Chicago's offense needing to be beyond elite to have a shot at the postseason, but they showed all signs of being that type of offense in Week 1. Ben Johnson's run game, shoutout to Darnell Wright and Jonah Jackson, is the best in the league by miles.
Aaron Glenn's job is safe, as the New York Jets have a playoff ceiling
I liked the Jets as a sneaky good team this year. There are a few smaller holes and a QB question, but Geno Smith looked really solid in Week 1, and the veteran additions on defense had a veteran impact!
I appreciated how well prepared the Jets were for this Titans matchup. Two teams who added a lot this offseason, I thought New York would get outcoached. Instead, they did the out-coaching, making Tennessee look like a far inferior team. The Jets looked good in all phases.
My favorite part, besides the sounds gameplan and execution, was how comfortable Geno Smith looked. If there was anything to gain from this Jets season, it was the environment they are creating for a quarterback.
Taking tackles in the first round in 2024 and 2025, and paying C Josh Myers and RG Joe Tippmann on the offensive line.
Paying Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, taking a flyer on Adonai Mitchell in the Sauce Gardner trade, and then drafting Omar Cooper Jr and Kenyon Sadiq in the 1st round of 2026. And Mason Taylor in the 2nd round a year ago.
A lot has been poured into this Jets offense, and it's nice to see it pay off. This "QB environment" is really becoming everything I thought it could be.
The Tennessee Titans will not improve in the standings
Building off of my previous overreaction, the Jets made Tennessee look bad.
The additions, particularly on the defense, were underwhelming and it's hard not to feel like many of them are massively overpaid. Even in Robert Saleh's New York tenure, he called an excellent defense. There is hope there, especially when Jeffery Simmons is on the field.
But offensively, it looked like a mess.
Cam Ward does not look improved at all, but when you look at external factors, it's hard to blame the young QB. Getting pressured or sacked on half of your dropbacks is rough, and it's hard to say this is surprising when you look at the offensive line.
A bad pass protecting offensive line, and it appears as it will be hard to get a run game going. The environment for the young franchise QB is bad, and the supposed franchise QB is not making it easier.
Do we seriously expect Tennessee to win 5 games this season? Look at there schedule and point to a game other than Cleveland where you would legitimately have confidence in the Titans winning. Especially after the way they came out in Week 1.
A fresh coaching staff for the Baltimore Ravens makes them Super Bowl bound
Head coach Jesse Minter is one of the best defensive playcallers in the NFL. The Ravens generated a 52% pressure rate in Week 1, creating a -0.47 EPA/DB for the Colts offense. Pretty good.
On the other side, Minter hired 30 year old Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator. I loved what Doyle showed, including featuring Zay Flowers out of the backfield. Now, it's easy when you have a backfield of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, both looking like they have not lost a step. Derrick Henry is truly a miracle of a human being.
A fresher Baltimore Ravens team can go all the way. They have upgraded their already elite talent, and now the coaching staff seems on par.
New, yet similar, defense for the Dallas Cowboys knocks their postseason chances
Here are things that are different from Week 1 a year ago on Dallas' defense:
both starting LBs
1 starting outside CB, 1 starting safety, starting nickel
EDGE rushers 2-4 on the depth chart
two starting DEs
defensive coordinator
I believe Kenny Clark and Malik Hooker are the only two starters from 370 days ago. Everything is new!
And they still looked just as awful. And last year was a historically awful defense.
The main concern, besides not being able to disrupt Jaxson Dart's rhythm, was the missed assignments. In coverage and gap assignments on the line of scrimmage. It's fairly inexcusable if you want to win a football game.
With what we saw last year and in Week 1, it's hard for me to understand how a team with this defense is meant to make the playoffs, let alone win a game if they get there.
The experienced offensive coaching staff of the New York Giants creates a winning ceiling
And now for the team that put the beatdown on the Dallas Cowboys defense. I was excited to watch the Giants this season, but couldn't buy into them winning games for a pair of reasons. For one, they lost their best defensive player on an already awful defense.
But I was also concerned with their offense being ran by Matt Nagy and Greg Roman, with Nagy as the official OC. Two older coaches that were let go because their offenses fell behind the modern NFL.
But they showed fantastic things on Sunday Night. The offense looked fantastic, and Jaxson Dart looked in control from start to finish. Dart had autonomy at the line of scrimmage, and seemingly "killed" calls effectively, considering the down to down results. They went heavy in the run game, and had heavy sets in general, which made things easy against the Dallas front.
Things were easy for Dart and the offense, but they weren't simple. This wasn't some quest to give Dart easy throws, the offense just marched efficiently. Dart's legs were useful, but not necessary. He operated well from the pocket.
This Giants offense, along with a fresh and fast defense, can compete with a lot of teams across the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals have found their head coach
It wasn't all pretty for the Cardinals in Week 1, but they were an incredibly prepared team that dominated time of possession. We all know Arizona has talent, especially on this offense, but the schedule is tough and there were major questions about their head coach and quarterback.
Based off of Week 1, they might have a head coach. LaFleur hasn't called plays since he was with the Jets in 2022, but I liked his overall playcalling and sequencing in Week 1. The Cardinals had an efficient passing game and avoided pressure despite dropping back 38 times.
Walking into the Chargers house in Week 1 and outplaying them in nearly all phases, leading throughout the entire game, is an incredible accomplishment for a 39 year old first time head coach.
The schedule gets tougher with Seattle and San Francisco in Weeks 2 and 3, so we'll see how well Arizona competes in those matchups.
But it's nice for Cardinals fans to see LaFleur starting hot. If Arizona is a competitive team that can support their QB, that qualifies as a win for the 2026 Cardinals.
MVP Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing offense is playoff bound
This Jaguars passing attack made the Cleveland defense look straight up bad. This is not a bad defense.
I have said the Jaguars passing attack is how they'll have to win games, and it sure was true in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence played like an MVP down the stretch of 2025, but that version didn't show up in the postseason. We've seen those stretches in Lawrence's career before, but we have not witnessed a complete season even close to that level.
If Lawrence plays at this level for an entire season, we are legitimately talking about an MVP season. And Jacksonville will need it if they want to reach the postseason.
The arm talent and pocket maneuvering are elite, and when Lawrence's accuracy is firing like it did in Week 1, he's fairly unstoppable as a quarterback. The Jaguars getting this version for all 17 weeks may end in repeating at the top of the division.
Three ingredients make it impossible for the Seattle Seahawks defense to decline
As long as Mike Macdonald is calling the defense and has Devon Witherspoon and Byron Murphy at his disposal, it's hard to imagine this Seattle defense taking a step back.
Seattle lost some depth in the offseason, and depth with some secondary injuries in the offseason. Yet it did not effect their success on defense. Maybe not all of those INTs they gathered were a product of the defense, a bit of luck was involved, but the core principles of the defense were elite, regardless of outcome.
The play physical and mean up front, with an aggressive pocket push from the interior.
As long as injuries don't sap the core of this group, this Seahawks defense provides a floor of a playoff appearance.
The Super Bowl favorite has major holes that were overlooked in the media
The Rams were everybody's preseason Super Bowl pick(including myself) but showed legitimate flaws in Week 1. To the point where it doesn't seem logical to consider Los Angeles as overwhelming Super Bowl favorites.
Defensively, the defensive line was neutralized outside of a few Kobie Turner reps. Myles Garrett has dealt with a knee issue for over a month, played in Week 1, and is now getting knee surgery. Bad news.
The linebackers are slow and poor in coverage,
The safeties were not disciplined in coverage and quite frankly were picked on. And their shiny new CBs can only do so much in zone coverage.
And yet the most concerning thing was the fact that Matthew Stafford was straight up inaccurate. Like, missing open receivers from a fairly clean pocket. Does jet lag effect the accuracy of an American football? If not, the Rams might be in trouble.
We'll see how much of it was simply Sean McVay and Chris Shula being outcoached, or the travel plan not benefitting them in Week 1, or if these issues are persistent as the season progresses. Facing the Giants, Broncos, Eagles, and Bills should provide a decent measurement of if we need to be concerned or not.
All of these bolded statements will definitely maintain their truth by the end of the season.
The entire point of Week 1 is to overreact, especially if your team won. We are all playoff bound. Unless your team stunk, then you're getting the number 1 overall pick.
We will continue overreactions for the first few weeks of the season, before transitioning to rankings and awards articles throughout the year. Those will be the mid-week articles. I will also produce a 49ers preview(Saturday) and review(Monday), along with a breakdown of something that happened on Thursday Night Football(Friday release).
And for more content, follow my Twitter/X @GridironGoldM_!
Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!
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