Every AFC Team's Fatal Flaw Headed into 2026
No team is perfect.
Every team lost players, every team gained some players. Very rarely does a franchise truly stay steady in between seasons.
And even if they do, that doesn't mean everything was perfect in the prior year!
This article will go through each team and point out at least one flaw or roster hole that could hold them back from their ceiling in 2026.
Obviously every team has different expectations, so I don't want to say "what will hold each team back from winning the Super Bowl." Most teams do not have the Super Bowl as a realistic expectation.
Think of it as the general reason why the team could fail to reach their ceiling, or the reason why the team could lose a game on Sundays.
This is the NFC edition, and we will start out West.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Run Game Consistency
After J.K Dobbins went down in Week 10, the Broncos rushing offense took a major hit. 2025 rookie R.J Harvey simply could not provide stability, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
Denver averaged 128 rushing yards a game prior to Dobbins' injury, and just 97 yards when Dobbins went out.
QB Bo Nix is mobile, but he is coming off an ankle fracture and, despite his plus athleticism, averages just 17 rushing yards a game.
Dobbins is back in 2026, but hardly a guy to rely on.
Since tearing his knee in the 2021 preseason, he has played just 32 out of 68 possible games from 2022 to 2025.
The Denver offensive line is a very solid run blocking group, but their 2025 run game lacked creativity from the rushers, namely Harvey.
Relying on a rushing leap from him, Dobbins to be available, or 4th rounder Jonah Coleman to be productive does not seem like the best idea for a team who wants to win a Super Bowl.
The Broncos threw the ball more than anyone last year. And somehow, they took the least amount of sacks. And allowed the 3rd least amount of pressure. The offensive line is incredibly, and Nix can scramble around to avoid sacks well.
Despite this heavy reliance on the passing game and the lack of sacks, Denver is only 13th in EPA per dropback.
What does this have to do with the run game?
If you are not going to run the ball well, your passing attack should at least be at the top of the league.
What could help this is a more effective play-action attack, which Denver uses 26% of the time. Bo Nix actually had worse efficiency(EPA, rating) when using play-action rather than straight dropback. This should not happen.
Great teams pound the rock and benefit from it in the postseason. Denver needs to figure this out, even if it is just adopting the Seahawks strategy from 2025, which consists of refusing to abandon the run game regardless of success.
Establishing the run either results in controlling the game and dominating in the postseason, or helps improve the play-action game and pass game efficiency. Denver must figure it out.
Kansas City Chiefs
A Go-To Pass Catcher
Maybe Patrick Mahomes has proven he doesn't need one.
But Travis Kelce is no longer one of the best TEs in the league, and Mahomes' rushing creativity may need a year off after his ACL tear.
This is why I think the Chiefs lacking a truly reliable pass catcher will hurt their odds when it's time to push for the playoffs.
In years past, Mahomes has been able to turn to his magical connection with Kelce.
But, while Kelce can still be reliable guy in terms of catching the ball, he's lost his status as a go-to receiving threat. He can be there to catch the checkdown, but will provide little downfield and little wiggle after the catch. And part of Kelce's magical connection with Mahomes is his ability to always be open when Mahomes is scrambling. I think the scrambling will take a dip this season.
Patrick Mahomes has been the Chiefs source of explosive run plays the last couple seasons. I don't see 70 rushing attempts in Mahomes' outlook this season after tearing his ACL. Not only that, but he will likely be more confined to the pocket as a passer as well, with less playmaking in the backfield.
Luckily, the Chiefs acquired Kenneth Walker to source some more explosive plays in 2026. But can they find any explosives in the passing game? Or even a consistent source in the passing game?
Tyquan Thornton was a good addition as a deep threat in 2025, averaging 23 yards per reception with a decent deep catch rate, considering he was seeing targets at over 35 yards downfield. But how big a role will he play if Xavier Worthy is healthy?
Worthy has not been a good deep threat in his career, and even posted below average YAC numbers in 2025, despite being one of the faster players in the NFL. Worthy seems to be a better option underneath, but that's where Rashee Rice finds his role.
Rice posted a career low catch rate in 2025, has dealt with knee issues, and was in jail this offseason. There is quite literally nothing about him that is reliable.
Despite some offseason losses, there is a lot to like about the Chiefs this season. But will it be possible to make a postseason run if Mahomes is unable to have consistent success from the pocket?
A signing such as Stefon Diggs would very much change my opinion on the Chiefs 2026 season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Pass Rush Production
The Raiders was trickier to decide than I anticipated. Their ceiling is more of an exciting, pushing for 8 wins while causing havoc on the division, type of team. And they cleaned up some notable holes in the roster this offseason, making a weakness less obvious. While I don't expect a great season, there is not one obvious spot that will hold them back.
I say pass rush because the only additions made were DE Kwity Paye, 3 year, $48m contract, and DE Keyron Crawford, 3rd round selection.
I did not mind Crawford as a prospect with a potential pass rush role off the jump, and Paye has been decently productive in past seasons.
But overall, do the Raiders have the tools to consistently apply pressure and effect opposing QBs? I'm not entirely sure.
The only player on the Raiders to eclipse a 10% pressure rate was Malcolm Koonce, who plays more of a designated pass rusher role. That is his entire job. And 10% is a very low bar. Maxx Crosby was the only player to eclipse 5.0 sacks, hitting the double digit mark.
Crosby is the big key here. If he is fully healthy, he can be a game wrecker on the defensive front. He has not been as productive, or at least efficient, recently, but that can be chalked up to everyone around him. Opponents only have to focus on Crosby. The questions with Crosby is how much will his knee effect him? The Baltimore Ravens nixed a trade for Crosby in the offseason because they were concerned about his knee issues long-term.
I can appreciate the Raiders underrated interior trio of Adam Butler, Jonah Laulu, and Thomas Booker, but none of those guys have serious pass rushing production. Laulu is a guy I am keeping an eye on to breakout in Year 3, especially with the improved surroundings.
And this is the key thing for Las Vegas.
While nobody, with the exception of a healthy Crosby, is particularly formidable, a collection of competent pass rushers all on the field at once could create a better overall environment, leading to more production. It can allow Crosby to dominate and a guy like Laulu to break out.
The Raiders have given themselves some more options up front, but a lack of legitimate pass rush production will likely leave Las Vegas lagging behind in divisional matchups. And this could possibly result in another bottom of the barrel finish for the Raiders in 2026.
Los Angeles Chargers
Elite Offensive Weapon
I believe the Chargers are firmly a playoff team this season. The question is, how far can they go?
What I believe is the biggest question mark is the defensive coordinator. Jesse Minter, now the HC of the Baltimore Ravens, was an elite defensive playcaller and is being replaced Chris O'Leary, who has bounced between college and the NFL, most recently calling plays for Western Michigan. But, O'Leary was with the Chargers in the past, and I believe their defense is talented enough to survive around the 10th best defense in the NFL. Barring a disastrous performance from O'Leary, they should be just fine defensively.
On the offensive side, I like what they've done.
Mike McDaniel is a great hire, even if it's just for one season. And his impact has already been felt in the offseason. A fullback in Alec Ingold, a blocking TE in Charlie Kolar, and an explosive RB in Keaton Mitchell were all required.
And these pieces, along with others I like, help makeup a very well rounded offense that is commanded by who I believe is an elite QB in Justin Herbert. Herbert has shown the ability to carry an offense, as he did in 2025, and adapt to different offenses.
Herbert can stretch the field with his arm, dominate with his legs, limit the turnovers, or be ultra aggressive.
But once Los Angeles reaches the playoffs, Herbert is overwhelmed. Whether his fault or not, it's a fact. And it's a fact that he has had no reliable resource in these poor playoff outings.
In Herbert's 3 playoff games(0-3), the Chargers have produced just 204 rushing yards on just 3.2 yards per carry. That's horrific.
And Herbert's top targets in those games were Gerald Everett, Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkey. These are not bad players, but when you compare it to some of his counterparts, it falls below the standard.
As I stated, I like what the Chargers have done offensively. Their TE room is strong, adding Kolar and veteran David Njoku.
The wide receivers are solid, with McConkey, second year deep threat Tre Harris, and Quentin Johnston. But Harris was not productive down field as a rookie, Johnston is not taking on top CBs, and Ladd is not a dominant physical presence.
Good weapons!
But look at teams that go deep in the playoffs, there is something to bank on.
Buffalo has Josh Allen and an elite run game. And even they went out to upgrade their WR core by trading for D.J. Moore!
Baltimore has Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. And Zay Flowers would be WR1 on the Chargers.
Seattle has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
San Francisco has Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
Los Angeles has one of the best runs game in the NFL, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams.
Philadelphia had A.J. Brown, and still have Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith.
Denver did not have anything, so they went out and got Jaylen Waddle.
Ditto to New England, and they acquired A.J Brown.
Now, this could all change if Mike McDaniel has the Chargers run game humming. Los Angeles having a successful run game with upgrades at LT, C, RT, and TE, as well as an explosive addition in Keaton Mitchell, and 2025 1st rounder Omarion Hampton is very easy to imagine.
The pass catching weapons are very suitable if paired with a strong run game.
I really like the Chargers offense, especially with Mike McDaniel calling the plays.
But I do wonder if McDaniel, along with the additions around the edges, is enough to life this Chargers team to a playoff run. Not having an elite, go-to, offensive weapon may once again hurt Los Angeles and Justin Herbert.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Pass Catching Depth
I once again feel very confident in Baltimore's roster.
When going through statistics and this depth chart, I struggled to pinpoint a true fatal flaw. A few came to mind, but they did not feel real enough.
Struggling to generate pressure has hurt Baltimore in the past, but Nnamdi Madubuike is returning, Trey Hendrickson is arriving, and they drafted Zion Young. That should help tons, and new HC Jesse Minter was a savant at being able to generate pressures on opposing QBs in Los Angeles.
Even a pass rush outside the top 10 should suffice, considering this is the best safety room in the NFL, and I like who they have at CB.
Offensively, you can not blame Lamar Jackson. As much as he may have come up short in the past, a teams "fatal flaw" is not the MVP QB having four bad playoff performances. It simply is not.
And early I referenced the Ravens having an elite weapon to bank on, which I believe you need to go on a playoff run. That weapon is the run game, which is always elite with Lamar, and elevates to another level with Derrick Henry.
So the issue is pass catching depth.
The Ravens have never truly given Lamar a WR1, but they've been able to build a great passing game through aggregation.
Mark Andrews at his peak was an All-Pro TE. Zay Flowers is a Pro Bowl WR who has rare explosion. Former 1st round WR Rashod Bateman has had good seasons in the past. TE Isaiah Likely was a good pass catching option found deep in the draft.
But Baltimore has never had a truly elite guy, and they still do not.
They are attempting to win a Super Bowl with essentially the same formula that has failed them for the last 7 seasons.
Except now Mark Andrews is 31. And Isaiah Likely is gone. And Rashod Bateman is coming off the worst season of his career, yet is still WR2.
Is a group of Mark Andrew, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Devontez Walker, and four rookies who were drafted in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds going to work?
Against defenses like Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, and New England?
Nothing is impossible with Lamar Jackson. I believe this. But when Lamar has come up short every year, wouldn't you think to look at the unit that has never been elite?
Especially coming off a season in which Lamar was clearly hampered when he returned from his hamstring injury. Lamar turns 30 at the end of this season. That other worldly agility will not last forever.
The good news for the Ravens is that Lamar has shown the ability to be elite from the pocket. But it is hard to be elite as a pocket passer when the weapons around him are so drab.
The fact that Baltimore is going into 2026 with such an uninspiring group of pass catchers once again feels like the definition of insanity. I think this team is incredible, and if Lamar is healthy, they can fight for the number one seed.
But, with the way the Ravens have acted, it truly feels as though they are just hoping they somehow get lucky come playoff time.
Cincinnati Bengals
Linebacker Play
Fairly simple, the all-around play of the LBs.
The Bengals projected starters are the same as in 2025, Demetrius Knight Jr and Barrett Carter. Both drafted in 2025, in the 2nd and 4th round, respectively.
It feels harsh to blame two rookie backers for the Bengals defense being bottom 3 in the NFL last year, but they were a significant part of the problem.
Both sporting missed tackle rates in the teens, at 14.5% and 13.8%, and neither being particularly astute in coverage. Carter in particular was taken advantage of in the passing game.
Now, upgrades have been made that can potentially make life easier on Knight and Carter.
Particularly, the acquisition of DT Dexter Lawrence. A big guy who can hold double teams in the run game can make things simpler for linebackers. It becomes much easier to get downhill and contribute to defending the run.
I personally think the Bengals have make the right acquisitions to get out of the basement defensively.
Safety Bryan Cook replacing Geno Stone is one of the biggest ugprades you can make. Dexter Lawrence is a true difference maker, both against the pass and run, up front.
And with the Boye Mafe signing and Cassius Howell draft selection, Cincinnati has a diverse group of pass rushers on the defensive line.
But will these moves matter if opposing offensive play callers can still draw a big red circle on the LBs during film?
If the middle of the field is just target practice for opposing offenses?
I believe the moves Cincinnati made, along with their elite offense, can set the Bengals up to not only make the postseason, but to maybe win a game or two once they get there. But good teams, let alone teams that win in the postseason, don't have glaring holes right in the heart of their defense.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback Play
I'm not sure of the ceiling of the Browns this season after the Myles Garrett trade.
That move makes everyone on the defense worse, and takes the Browns from a top 5 defensive unit to likely outside of the top 10.
But even if Jared Verse magically turns into Myles Garrett and Cleveland maintains a top 5 defense, there is no hope due to the QB room.
We currently do not know who is going to start at QB, but here are the four options:
Deshaun Watson has not played good football in nearly six seasons, and is coming off recovery from multiple achilles tears.
Dillon Gabriel looked extremely overwhelmed and incapable of conducting a successful NFL offense in his rookie season, despite the 7:2 TD to INT ratio.
Shedeur Sanders showed slightly more promise, just due to his stature, being able to throw downfield more effectively, and being a good scrambler. But even he was horrendous by every metric.
Taylen Green is a 6th round rookie who is an athletic freak and naturally intriguing, but he was hardly a very good college QB. That does not bode well for NFL success.
Again, the Browns will not be good this year after the Garrett trade.
But the defense could still be solid, and maybe new HC Todd Monken can insert his offense and create more consistently open looks. What plagued Cleveland last year was the pathetic pass catching options and horrific offensive line.
While not perfect, there was a clear effort to upgrade the OL, bringing in multiple veteran starters along with the 9th overall pick in the 2026 draft. And they drafted WRs with the 24th and 39th picks of the draft.
There is clearly more offensive talent in Cleveland.
Unfortunately, it is hard to picture the offense being very productive simply due to the state of the QB room.
It is truly one of the worst QB rooms I have ever witnessed in a preseason. Not one inspiring candidate to elevate the new weapons in the receiving room.
The only argument I would hear against this case is that the QB room is what will get the Browns the 1st pick in the 2027 Draft, therefore it is not a flaw, but rather a bigger part of the grand plan.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pushing the Ball Downfield
Once again, I find myself liking the Steelers roster.
Year after year, the media claims Pittsburgh will finally collapse and fall below .500. It may very well happen this year without Mike Tomlin. But the roster is still very solid.
The defensive front is elite and the outside CB duo is as well. The offensive line is an incredibly young and tough unit as well.
But their QB is 42 year old Aaron Rodgers.
And Rodgers was not bad last season, but he has some flaws that are more apparent now in his older age.
Rodgers has never been a QB to attack the middle of the field, despite being one of the most accurate QBs in NFL history. He preferred to use his arm talent to hit deep balls and dominate outside the numbers.
In 2025, Rodgers threw just 42 of his 498 passes(8%) over the middle of the field, further than 10 air yards. He threw 220 middle of the field passes under 10 yards. Essentially, Rodgers is not attacking the middle of the field unless it is on a checkdown.
64% of Rodgers' downfield throws(10+ air yards) were outside of the numbers.
This would not be a bad thing, but Pittsburgh doesn't really have the personnel at WR to match this passing style.
DK Metcalf is a big body, but he's not exactly a contested catch artist. He actually struggles in those situations. Michael Pittman Jr was acquired in a trade this offseason, and he lives more in the middle of the field as a big bodied receiver. Rookie 2nd rounder Germie Bernard is a similar archetype to Pittman.
While Rodgers' style is not inherently a bad thing, the Steelers personnel simply does not match up with how Rodgers wants to approach the game.
Aaron Rodgers also simply was not effective when throwing downfield in 2025 either. He had a completion percentage of just 38% on throws over 10 air yards last season, in all areas of the field.
The only way this works is if the YAC production is elite from Pittsburgh. And it can be.
Metcalf was good last year, still having that high gear with his speed and a frame that is hard to bring down when moving at full speed.
RB Jaylen Warren is a good receiving threat out of the backfield as well, being able to make guys miss.
Even TE Pat Friermuth has some good after the catch ability.
And Bernard's top skill coming out of Alabama is his YAC.
So Rodgers is surrounded by receivers who can work after the catch, which can help the offense stay afloat.
It is extremely difficult to survive in the NFL, let alone win in the postseason, if you are completely neutralized when having to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield.
While I still like the Steelers roster, I don't see how they can succeed when their QB has such limited ability downfield. It condenses the playing field and becomes incredibly easy to defend against.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Edge Rush Production
I will harp on pass rush until the end of time.
The Bills have attempted to address this through the years, and tried once again this offseason.
It is a fact that defenses win championships.
The last 3 Super Bowl winners all had top 2 scoring defenses, allowing under 18 points per game.
And a large part of crafting an elite defense is getting pressure on the QB. The Bills have an intriguing trio on the interior, led by veteran Ed Oliver, who is alongside two 2025 rookies in Deone Walker and T.J. Sanders, who both had strong rookie years.
But off the edge, Buffalo got little production. And their 2nd and 3rd highest producers were Joey Bosa and A.J Epenesa, both of whom are gone!
Here is where the Bills ranked in pass rush in 2025:
20th in total sacks
12th in pressure rate
29th in time to pressure
Being that low in time to pressure essentially means a lot of their pressure came from the opposing QB holding the ball too long.
Buffalo's pass rush did not stress opposing offenses.
You need to get after the QB to win in the postseason.
The Bills pressured Bo Nix just 10 times on 46 dropbacks to the tune of no sacks and no QB hits in their playoff lost in January. That is a 21.7% pressure rate, by the way. The worst in the NFL over the course of 2025 was 26.1%.
And their playoff game against Jacksonville was not much better. One sack on 9 pressures and 0 QB hits on 31 dropbacks. A 29% pressure rate.
This forced Buffalo to spend big on 30 year old Bradley Chubb, who was signed to 3 year, $43.5m contract, and did not play in 2024 due to a torn ACL. Chubb did play all 17 in 2025, posting 8.5 sacks on a 14.6% pressure rate. Both would have marked as first on the Bills in 2025.
And Buffalo spent their top pick on T.J. Parker out of Clemson, who had 21.5 sacks in 3 seasons in college.
Buffalo has a really solid roster led by an MVP quarterback and, in my opinion, had a very strong offseason. But are a draft pick and 30 year old Bradley Chubb enough to make a true difference over last season? I'm not sure.
While the Bills still project to be a very good team, when we get to January, how much of an impact will the pass rush have, particularly off the edge?
Miami Dolphins
The Secondary
Miami enters 2026 with arguably the worst roster on paper, as a new regime takes over.
I'm not even sure what the Dolphins ceiling is. I suppose Malik Willis turns out to be a legit QB1, and with him and Devon Achane in the backfield, behind a very underrated offensive line, the running game is really good?
But the pass catchers are horrid on paper. Miami did draft 5 pass catchers, two TEs and three WRs. Maybe a couple of those guys could pan out as legit weapons and, combined with the run game, OC Bobby Slowik is able to manufacture an average passing attack off the back of play-action?
And defensively, former 1st round picks DE Chop Robinson and DT Kenneth Grant have breakout seasons and can get to the QB. With veteran DT Zach Sieler returning to form, and perhaps one of the buy-low DEs Miami signed among Josh Uche, David Ojabo, and Robert Beal, can provide some pass rushing spark.
And the LB core is legitimately good, with the drafting of Texas Tech's Jacob Rodriguez.
That is a lot that has to go right, and then we get to the secondary.
The Miami Dolphins do not have a single player in their secondary that has shown the ability to be an average NFL player at any point in there career. I suppose Lonnie Johnson has had a couple good seasons in his decade long career.
So there you have it. Lonnie Johnson is the best, most known quantity in the Dolphins secondary.
The Dolphins are heavily banking on 1st round CB Chris Johnson to be a good player. And maybe the circumstances in front of him won't be awful, as hypothetically described above.
Miami will be bad this season, and their secondary is a big reason why.
New England Patriots
Consistency from Running Backs
New England is in a pretty strong place, so this is nitpicking.
There were three options for me to nitpick.
The pass rush off the edge. They lost K'Lavon Chaisson and only replaced him with Dre'Mont Jones. The interior rush and solid secondary makes up for average rush off the edge.
The offensive tackle play clearly dropped in the postseason, largely due to rookie Will Campbell being banged up. The only addition they made was 1st rounder Caleb Lomu. Adding LG Alijah Vera-Tucker should also help the pass protection.
And the running backs.
I like both Rhamondre Stevenson, who had a strong second half of the season, and TreVeyon Henderson individually.
They split carries and receiving work and both provided some explosive plays.
But when taking the entire offense into consideration, I think the running backs are what could stifle New England down the stretch.
The offensive line is upgraded and QB Drake Maye is elite in the pocket and on the move, and provides his own running spark.
To start, the Patriots running game was unspectacular in the regular season:
14th in yards per run play
11th in EPA
23rd in stuffed run rate
23rd in success rate
Despite the underwhelming rushing offense, the Pats offense was still elite:
2nd in points per game
3rd in yards per game
2nd in yards per play
2nd in EPA per play
Drake Maye is very, very good and needs some support to have offensive success in the postseason.
New England's running backs looked as such in the postseason:
Stevenson: 217 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry, 0 TDs.
YPC dropped by 0.9. RYOE dropped by 0.7. YACo dropped by 0.5. Explosive run rate dropped by 4.7%.
Henderson: 76 yards on 2.5 yards per carry, 0 TDs.
YPC dropped by 2.6. RYOE dropped by 2.1. YACo dropped by 1.1. Explosive run rate dropped by 6.7%.
Negative plays do not fly in the playoffs. New England caught a lot of breaks thanks to their defense this past year, aiding them to an AFC title.
And negative plays are often caused by poor situations. It is much easier for opponents to cause negative plays when the run game is not functioning.
Again, I like both of New England's backs. But the performance has to be better if the Patriots want to repeat their run to the Super Bowl. The odds they get back with that caliber of offensive performance is extremely low.
And yes, the passing game was poor as well. But playoff runs are built off of the run game. And your QB should not be your most productive rusher. I believe the Patriots most likely achilles heel in the postseason will be the ability of their running backs.
New York Jets
Quarterback
Here me out!
The Jets made a lot of moves in the offseason, including acquiring Geno Smith to be their bridge starting QB.
I've said "Quarterback" is a potential fatal flaw for other franchises, but this is a bit different for New York. This is more similar to Atlanta's weakness, rather than a team like Cleveland.
It's not that the QB room is horrendous, although Geno Smith was bad last season.
It is the fact that the Jets have created a positive offensive environment, and if they are to hit their ceiling this season, it requires good play from their QB.
And Smith did not provide good play in 2025.
30th in EPA per dropback
16th in CPOE
24th in YPA
37th in pressure to sack rate
33rd in INTs
And this comes with Geno being 32nd in air yards per attempt, meaning he put up bad stats while not even pushing the ball downfield.
That being said, Smith will be entering an entirely different scenario.
He is going from one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to one of the best.
Las Vegas had the worst running game in the NFL while New York ranked in the top 10.
And Geno only played with TE Brock Bowers for 11 games last season, and his WR1 was Tre Tucker. The Jets have Garrett Wilson, Mason Taylor, and two 2026 1st round picks in Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr.
New York made so many moves this offseason, it is hard to determine what will fail, particularly on defense.
I believe adding NT T'Vondre Sweat and LB Demario Davis will help shore up a poor run defense.
Kingsley Engabare and Joseph Ossai aren't game breakers, but they certainly are upgrades at DE. And you can't forget about the 2nd overall pick, David Bailey.
And Minkah Fitzpatrick is still one of the best safeties in football. He should be able to put a lid on this defense that had zero INTs in 2025. And speaking of interceptions, CB Nahshon Wright had 5 of them for Chicago in 2025. He, along with 2nd round pick D'Angelo Ponds, joins the Jets secondary.
I don't expect this defense to be great, but it is hard to pick a spot to be what holds the Jets back from their version of success in 2026. If I had to pick, I would say the CB position.
The pass rush won't be elite and the corners may get picked on a bit with the man coverage scheme Aaron Glenn prefers.
The Jets reaching their ceiling this season likely revolves around their good offense improving, and that means Geno Smith must play well.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Run Game Efficiency
Houston has a flawless defense. They have a WR1 and some intriguing options beyond him. The offensive line has massively improved, although we're yet to see that on the field.
The Texans rushing attack was incredibly poor last season.
29th in yards per run play
29th in EPA
26th in explosive runs
25th in stuffed run rate
31st in success rate
Woody Marks enters year 2 after putting up just 3.6 YPC as a rookie, along with a below average 2.9 yards after contact per carry.
The only notable addition to the RB room is veteran David Montgomery.
Montgomery is coming off of a solid year, although he is entering his age 29 season.
His 4.5 YPC, 3.4 YACo, 15 explosive runs, and 0.8 RYOE would rank 1st among Houston's qualified rushers.
Those numbers are suspiciously close to what Nick Chubb did in Houston last year. Maybe a bit too close for comfort for Texans fans.
The stats don't really suggest it, and maybe it had to do with the state of the Lions offensive line, but it did appear as though Montgomery lost a bit of a step in 2025.
The Texans need to get a run game going for multiple reasons. For one, every team with a Super Bowl dream needs a run game.
But more importantly, Houston does not run play-action too often. C.J. Stroud's numbers skyrocket when play-action is called.
Non play-action:
6.7 YPA, 88.1 passer rating, 0.01 EPA, TD-INT ratio of 1.8-1
Play-action:
8.7 YPA, 108.4 passer rating, 0.25 EPA, TD-INT ratio of 6-1
Now, this is improvement is not unique to Stroud. But if the Texans want Stroud to get comfortable and have himself prove to be their franchise QB, a consistent running game would help.
And beyond Stroud's future, play-action helps this year.
Look at Seattle. Sam Darnold was not particularly special but thrived under play-action, which Seattle was able to execute because of their philosophy surrounding the run game.
Having a defense of Houston's caliber allows for extra room for error, but a good run game takes you the extra mile. Again, look at Seattle. When the run game produced consistently, they dominated opponents.
If the Texans do not figure out how to move the chains on the ground, it is likely defenses will find way to make Stroud struggle once again in the playoffs, and end their Super Bowl hopes early on.
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones' Health
Here is how I see the Colts:
A fairly solid roster throughout and I believe they had a good offseason.
Their first half run in 2025 was not a fluke, but some luck was involved, as it is in every game.
They then overpaid for Sauce Gardner and immediately became one of the unluckiest teams in the league.
They paid Daniel Jones a lot of money in the offseason, but, if they desire, could get off the contract in 2027 quite easily.
And speaking of 2027, they have multiple notable free agents, such as Deforest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Downs.
Shane Steichen is entering Year 4 as head coach and has a record of 25-26 with no playoff appearances. I believe he is a good coach, but you need results, especially considering the state of the team.
Which is how I land on Daniel Jones needing to be healthy. It always comes back to the quarterback.
Jones fractured his fibula in Week 12 during the Colts second loss of the season. Or at least that is when it was announced.
Two weeks later, he tore his achilles.
Jones was having a career year by nearly all marks in 2025.
Was 104 yards off his career high(3,205) despite playing 3.5 less games
Career high in TDs - 19
Career high passer rating - 100.2
Career high completion percentage - 68.0%
Career high yards per attempt - 8.2
Career high EPA per dropback - +0.12
And Jones did this while pushing the ball downfield more than ever, with a career high 8.2 air yards per attempt, which ranked 14th in the entire NFL.
A rushing QB coming off a career year having to recover from such a notable injury is not good. Now, Jones is participating at training camp. But these injuries are always different with QBs, simply because their position takes less physical capability to perform.
Really all you need to do is stand in the pocket, especially in training camp.
Jones needs to play near the level he did last year for Indianapolis to reach the playoffs.
Loss of rushing ability, velocity, and even accuracy, are concerns coming off an injury like this. This can be deduced by common sense, but here are two real life examples of QBs taking a step back after an achilles tear:
Kirk Cousins:
Before - After
TD to INT ratio: 3.6 : 1 1.1 : 1
Passer Rating: 103.8 88.6
Completion %: 69.5% 66.9%
EPA/Dropback: +0.03 -0.01
Pressure to sack rate: 16.19% 18.42%
Aaron Rodgers:
Before - After
TD to INT ratio: 2.1 : 1 2.5 : 1
Passer Rating: 91.1 90.5
Completion %: 64.6% 63.0%
EPA/Dropback: -0.04 -0.06
Pressure to sack rate: 20.51% 22.10%
You can honestly take this either way.
Yes, the numbers indicate there is a drop off.
However, Rodgers "Before" is from Green Bay in 2022 and the "After" comes in New York from 2024, when he was 40 years old.
And Kirk Cousins' "Before" comes in Minnesota, with his "After" being in Atlanta, when he was 36 years old.
Daniel Jones needs to get back to a level of health to where he can perform at the level he was in 2025. The Colts need a playoff appearance this year, and the main thing that would prevent this is a fall off in the performance of Daniel Jones.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Pass Rush Waves
Jacksonville made great strides with Liam Coen in 2025, but undeniably lost talent during the offseason.
They will likely not have an easy road to repeat as NFC South champions, and I believe the pass rush could be at the front of that issue.
Losing Devin Lloyd is big and I'm not in love with the safety room nor offensive line, but something that can make up for a lot of the deficiencies defensively is the pass rush.
Jacksonville had just two pass rushers exceed a 10% pressure rate, being Josh Hines-Allen and Dennis Gardeck. And Gardeck is not even a full-time rusher.
Travon Walker experienced a bit of a down year, with just 3.5 sacks and a 9.7% pressure rate, both career lows.
Veteran DT Arik Armstead was still productive, but not as high level as he once was.
They swapped Maason Smith for Ruke Orhorhoro, who can provide more pop as a pass rusher with 3.5 sacks at an 8.9% pressure rate, similar numbers to Armstead.
The Jaguars also drafted DT Albert Regis and DE Wesley Williams in the 3rd and 4th round, respectively. But funnily enough, neither project as having an immediate impact when rushing the passer. Scouts viewed them more favorably against the run.
The negatives showed in the stats last year for Jacksonville's pass rush.
24th in pressure rate
29th in sack rate
And yet, they were 8th in yards per pass play allowed and 2nd in EPA when it comes to pass defense.
The stark difference is simply because of turnovers.
The Jaguars were 2nd in forcing turnovers in 2025, with 31. 22 of those wereINTs, also 2nd in the NFL.
The problem with relying on turnovers is that turnovers are volatile year to year. Even with a similar unit, they are not a consistent thing to be relied upon.
The leader in turnovers in 2024 had 33. In 2025, that number dropped to 21, which was 11th.
In 2023, the leader had 31. That number dropped to 17 in 2024, 20th in the NFL.
In 2022, it was 33. They dropped to 12th in the NFL with 26.
You get the idea.
Defenses need something more tangible than turnovers to be elite.
And typically, that comes from the pass rush.
You can not have a successful pass rush with just one good unit. Teams need to have waves of players who can rush the passer so that they have the ability to create pressure on the opposing QB at all times.
Jacksonville does not currently have that. At best, they have one unit that can consistently apply pressure. You need two.
A lack of constant pass rush flow will be what causes Jacksonville to fall short in a strong division, and will definitely hurt them in the postseason, if they can get that far.
Tennessee Titans
Establishing the Run
I believe Tennessee is a sneakily strong team this season.
I have faith in the coaching staff, and the players they brought in this offseason were not just expensive roster filler. Those are impact players.
Looking at the defense, I see a true identity. Tennessee is quite strong up the middle of the defense.
All-Pro Jeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers are on the interior defensive line. Cedric Gray and rookie Anthony Hill are at LB. And two of the more underrated safeties in the league form a strong safety duo on the backend, in Amani Hooker and Kevin Winston.
Having an identity like this can help a defense control a game.
But on top of this, they paid Cor'Dale Flott and Alontae Taylor to play CB, and have an intriguing group of defensive ends. That group includes former 1st rounder Jermaine Johnson, who was a Pro Bowler under new HC Robert Saleh back in New York.
All that to say, I believe in Tennessee this season. Their ceiling is a winning record, I truly believe this.
I just praised the defense, but I am a Cam Ward believer, especially with the selection of Carnell Tate. I think the Titans have a well rounded receiving core after this offseason.
But the combination of the run game and offensive line makes it hard to fully buy in to the 2026 Titans.
Here are the numbers from 2025:
28th in explosive runs
27th in rush EPA
21st in yards per run play
28th in success rate
30th in rush yards per game
That last one irks me.
And usually "per game" stats are irrelevant in terms of actual success and efficiency, because it is so dependent the flow of the games.
However, the flow of Titans games has no reason to change in 2026.
Because very little changed between the RBs and OL.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are still the top backs, although Tennessee did draft Nick Singleton.
Pollard was just 25th in rushing yards over expected, and was 5th among RBs in fumbles.
Meanwhile Spears' still hasn't broken out, as some may have predicted after an intriguing rookie season in 2023.
In terms of the offensive line, it's fine, I guess.
The two projected changes are Austin Schlottman replacing Lloyd Cushenberry at center and Cordell Volson replacing Kevin Zeitler at RG.
Neither project to be notable, althought Schlottman was with new OC Brian Daboll in New York the last two season, notching 4 starts.
The offensive line was below average in pass protection, but there were other factors at play.
Namely not having a great play caller, great weapons to distribute the ball to, and a rookie QB who was not great under pressure.
But here is where the issue lies.
I like Cam Ward, and think the passing game surroundings are much improved.
But will he be able to take advantage of some of these weapons?
If Ward can not get comfortable behind the offensive line, these upgrades mean nothing and Ward's development is delayed another season.
The Titans have to find a way to establish the run in order to create a better environment for Cam Ward. If. the run game is unable to get going, Ward will be put into bad situations where he has to carry the offense with his arm, and I am not sure he is capable of that in Year 2, especially behind this offensive line.
Tennessee not having an obviously good running game nor offensive line is what holds me back from really going all-in on this team having a great season. You would really have to believe in Austin Schlottman becoming a good starting center, along with Brian Daboll crafting a masterful run game.
While it is possible, it simply seems as though the lack of a solid run game will hold the Titans back from a winning season.
Thanks for reading through the article!
Did I get your team's flaw right? If not, let me know what you think it will be.
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