Fantasy Football Values - Who to draft, and when

Photo via detroitlions.com

Fantasy football season has arrived.

Fantasy football is played by everyone.

You have your diehard football guys, diehard fantasy heads, gamblers, high school buddies, college friends, co-workers, family, and even athletes themselves.

It's an endless industry with seemingly hundreds of ways to play.

As a man who won two fantasy leagues last season, I feel qualified to share some opinions.

This article will be for redraft leagues, specifically PPR, but I do have an auction draft "guide" coming soon.

You can find rankings everywhere, and in the end, when you are on the clock, you just scroll through that website's ranking seeing who you like best. So, while it's good to have personal rankings, I believe it's more important to have a good draft strategy.

And the main ideology of a my strategy is value. Fantasy is a hard game because is it so luck-based, but the one thing we do know is the average draft position of each player. So your draft strategy should be based around value.

Get the most out of each selection.

It is hard to describe a strategy, because nothing is without flaws, you more so have to believe in it. In redraft leagues, you can only take who is available.

So not reaching on a guy who has a low floor or is in a poor situation is important. As is knowing where the value lies down the board.

So all I will do here is take you through a few categories where I talk about some players that I like for 2026.

All fantasy related numbers are from fantasypros.com

Let's get into it.

My Guys

QB Trevor Lawrence

ADP - 88, QB8 overall

Lawrence is going into his 6th NFL season and finished with the 4th most points from a QB in 2025.

He had a career high 82 rush attempts under HC Liam Coen, including 9 rushing TDs. He also finished 6th in pass attempts. I anticipate this number stay high, due to a defensive regression and a new starting RB.

I don't think QB8 is some crazy value, but getting a starting QB at 88th overall is pretty great value. Especially one with rushing upside, particularly in the redzone. I do not think those 9 rushing TDs are a fluke. With Lawrence's frame and no notable redzone upgrade for Jacksonville, this can be a regular occurence.

I am always pro waiting on a QB, and Lawrence is an elite option in the 7th round or later.

QB Dak Prescott

ADP - 91, QB10 overall

Speaking of waiting to draft a QB, Dak Prescott has been my target in fantasy for pretty much his entire career.

Dak has no rushing upside, but when he plays a full season, Prescott is consistently top 3 in the NFL in pass attempts. With these attempts, he's efficient, aggressive, and get to throw to an elite receiving core.

I expect nothing to change with Dallas' offense, and Dak will likely put up 4500 yards and 30 TDs, something he has done 4 times since 2019.

While I prefer Lawrence for the rushing upside in a similar draft range, Dak is an incredible option for being listed at QB10. Really, QB10? That feels widely low.

The one concern is that Prescott has only played 16 games three times in the last six seasons. But if he's healthy, Dak is easily a starting fantasy QB, finishing 5th in 2025.

RB Jaylen Warren

ADP - 61, RB27 overall

According to his ranking among RBs, Warren doesn't even project as a starting RB. I would disagree.

Warren finished as RB17 last season in PPR, despite his teammate Kenneth Gainwell having 33 more receptions than Warren. Gainwell is no longer on the Steelers.

And the only RB Pittsburgh added was Rico Dowdle. Dowdle saw 39 receptions over the last two seasons, but was not nearly as efficient as Warren. And even with those 39 receptions and Warren's 40, that still leaves an additional 34 receptions from Steelers RBs in 2025.

Aaron Rodgers completed 113 receptions to RBs in 2025. Now, Kenneth Gainwell is a special receiving back, so I do not expect that to be 100% replicated.

But I do expect Jaylen Warren to absorb the majority of the work, and for him to land in the 65 catch range.

And forget receiving, Warren is a great rusher. He is efficient and a tackle breaker, being 4th in the NFL in yards after contact.

Warren is an efficient runner who will see the majority of carries and an uptick in receiving work. In PPR leagues, I would be shocked if he was not an RB2.

RB Keaton Mitchell

ADP - 157, RB54 overall

Now, I am not saying the new Chargers RB is a starter in fantasy. I am saying that, for where he is ranked, his chances of being more useful than approximately 20 RBs being taken in front of him is very high.

Mitchell was brought in to Los Angeles to back-up 2025 1st rounder Omarion Mitchell, who is RB8.

However, I doubt in new OC Mike McDaniel's offense, that Hampton will be a bell cow runner. For one, Mitchell's speed and explosiveness is too special to be kept on the bench. And secondly, Hampton doesn't fit the typical runner of McDaniel's outside zone scheme. Mitchell does.

I do not believe Mitchell will take the starting job. But I do think the backfield will be split. And there is a chance Mitchell finally gets an increased workload and is so productive, that the carries lean Mitchell's way!

Mitchell is so much more than a handcuff in my opinion. And I believe his role in the Chargers offense will produce more than so many RBs in front of him. If you need depth at RB, Mitchell is a guy who, with his big play ability, could get you a few points any given week.

Wait for Keaton Mitchell at 140th overall rather than taking the likes of Isiah Pacheco, Woody Marks, Tyler Allgeier, or Tyjae Spears, who are all going in front of him.

WR Ladd McConkey

ADP - 49, WR21 overall

According to McConkey's slot among wide receivers, he's hardly worthy of an WR2 spot in your lineup.

Well, to be fair, in 2025 McConkey finished as WR30.

However, in the Chargers offense, there is a void of 122 targets and 81 receptions left by Keenan Allen. And the only notable WR addition was 4th round rookie Brennan Thompson.

I expect Ladd's targets, and efficiency, to be raised in this new Chargers offense. He will see more snaps in motion, where he has high levels of success.

I believe Ladd is a great football player who is a strong route runner at all levels of the field and plays with a good QB. And while he finished at WR30, he was just 21 points out of WR20. I believe he easily reaches this range simply off an increase in targets, and that's just if he gets 1 more catch per game!

The 21st WR is not outrageously low, but I believe that is closer to the floor for Ladd McConkey, rather than the ceiling.

WR Josh Downs

ADP - 131, WR49 overall

Downs has become WR2 in Indianapolis with the departure of Michael Pittman Jr.

And in 2025, with Pittman on the roster, Downs finished as WR44! I find it highly unlikely he sees less production in 2026, his 4th in the NFL.

In addition to the Pittman departure, Alec Pierce remains on the PUP list from an offseason ankle surgery. While Pierce should be ready for Week 1, that is something to monitor. And Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was the only pass catcher the Colts brought in this offseason.

Downs is a very good football player who should see more range in the routes he runs in 2026, having over 77% of his targets coming under 10 yards last year. Downs should see deeper targets in 2026, in addition to more targets overall.

With a higher workload, and the fact that Downs surpassed WR49 in each of the last two seasons, he is a perfect receiver to grab for your bench later in the draft.

WR Matthew Golden

ADP - 165, WR58 overall

Golden is a 1st round pick from just 1 year ago, and is in a WR room that has opened up this offseason.

Golden's non-volume numbers look good from 2025, he just only saw 44 targets all season.

He has the route tree and speed to have success all over the field, and I would be shocked if he did not see close to 70 targets in 2026. Two of the top three target getters on the Packers from 2025 are gone.

It does seem like Christian Watson is WR1, but will he even be available? He's only played more than 10 games twice in his career. There will be weeks, if not the season as a whole, with Golden as WR1.

The issue that could be more concerning than Watson's status is the Packers run heavy offense. But I do not really care. In 10 team league's, Golden is hardly being drafted.

I think he has a nice floor where he will have explosive weeks, but also has the potential to be WR1 on a very effective passing offense and be playable as a flex option. And in the throwaway rounds, you should be grabbing Golden every time.

WR Jalen Nailor

ADP - 192, WR66 overall

Nailor is a very underrated WR, and has been for a while. Which makes sense, as he's been stuck as WR3/4 in Minnesota for his entire career. I think he will have an incredible impact in Las Vegas.

The question is, how fantasy relevant will he be?

In that Raiders receiver room, Tre Tucker is a nice, fast slot option. Then there are two Year 2 receivers who did not make much of an impact as rookies.

I believe Nailor will be the second pass catching option on the Raiders offense behind TE Brock Bowers. And while new HC Klint Kubiak likes to favor the run game, the Raiders will likely be behind in a lot of games, forcing Kubiak to dropback at least an average amount. And Nailor will be targeted because he is a very good player.

Even last year, as WR3 in an offense that had 3 different (bad) QBs and only threw at the 14th highest rate in the NFL, Nailor was WR61. I find it impossible to believe he falls behind that mark.

Again, not a special sleeper, but a good bench option that is incredibly undervalued. And a player I believe is just really good at his job.

TE George Kittle

ADP - 108, TE13 overall

Let me say that there will be a TE section later in this article, but I wanted to highlight Kittle.

George Kittle is 32 years old and coming off a January achilles tear.

But there is a good chance he is available Week 1. And while maybe you simply don't want to bet on an old guy coming a serious injury, with Kittle's current ADP, there is such little risk.

He's currently not being drafted as a starting TE.

The injury is so heavily baked into his draft positioning and ranking, that it is hard for me to not be intrigued.

Again, if you don't want to waste a pick on Kittle because you don't know what he'll look like coming off an achilles tear, that is fine.

But we have modern medicine.

And there is nobody that will take Kittle's targets away. He will get his production in the 49ers offense. It's never as much as you want for a player of his caliber, but it has always been satisfactory in fantasy.

The only thing that could be taken from Kittle is TD production, with the addition of WR Mike Evans.

But again, he's currently TE13!!! He's not being drafted as a starter! Insane!

I would feel fairly comfortable in taking Kittle as my starter, and there are a few solid options down the board that can fill in if Kittle's production is truly that low. Including his backup Jake Tonges, who was incredibly productive when Kittle missed time in 2025.

I just can not see Kittle's outcome being lower than TE13. Drafting him is the definition of value. Even if he's not the Kittle of old, he should still make good on his draft positioning.

Best Values

In the "My Guys" section, pretty much all of them were also value selections. That is part of why they are "my guys." I believe those are great players who not only will outperform where they are being drafted, but guys who I am making a point to go out and get.

This section will be filled with more players who I just think are generally undervalued with their current ranking and ADP. They should probably be a tier or two higher, or simply have great upside for where they are going in drafts.

QB Patrick Mahomes

ADP - 105, QB12 overall

Mahomes finished as QB11 last year despite missing three weeks. Yes, the scrambling ability might be diminished and it helped him a lot in 2025. But even in his non MVP years, the lowest Mahomes has finished is QB11.

Now, I'm not advocating to take Mahomes in Round 5 or anything, but this is Patrick Mahomes we're talking about. At QB12, you're drafting him at his floor. That's great value. He's still one of the most efficient passers in the NFL and his weapons are upgraded in 2026.

QB Bo Nix

ADP - 118, QB15 overall

Nix is coming off an ankle injury, which could limit his 400 yard rushing upside. But this is a mobile QB who now has added Jaylen Waddle to his weapons arsenal. And oh yeah, the Broncos drop back more than any team in football.

Nix was QB7 in both his rookie and sophomore seasons. What reason is there for him falling all the way to QB15?

I would feel comfortable taking Nix as my starter all the way down in Round 10.

QB Kyler Murray

ADP - 158, QB21 overall

Kyler Murray is on a new team where he doesn't necessarily fit the scheme. And technically, he's not even confirmed as QB1. Kyler has also only played one full season in the past 5 years. That's the real danger, in my opinion.

But who cares, you're getting him at the end of the draft, with defenses and kickers!

Kyler will be throwing to an elite WR core, and although health is a concern, he still has upside there and averages 6 yards a carry.

To me, this is a starter. If you're scared of him missing games, first off, I'd say who cares, Daniel Jones is probably on waivers. But I would also say, take Jared Goff for a safety play later in the draft, and then take Kyler two rounds later!

Kyler Murray is an elite fantasy QB, never forget that.

RB Breece Hall

ADP - 30, RB16 overall

Hall is not some crazy value, but it seems as though he is being drafted in a tier below the one he belongs in.

30th overall for a clear RB1 behind a very good offensive line, who also has serious receiving upside, when guys like Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, and Jeremiyah Love are going 8 spots higher.

Again, it's not some egregious snub, but according to rankings and ADP, Hall is in a lower tier than those three. There is space between where it has been determined a RB should not be taken. I would take Hall over all three of those guys I named. I believe Jacobs has slowed down, plays behind a worse offensive line, and will see less receiving work, and the other two will split carries.

Unless you are worried Braelon Allen, who missed most of 2025 with an injury, is going to eat into Hall's workload, Hall can be taken at the end of Round 2 rather than beginning of Round 4.

RB Jordan Mason

ADP - 102, RB39 overall

To put it simply, I believe Mason is RB1 on the Vikings and he is going below his backfield mate, Aaron Jones. Jones is coming off a career worst season, going on 32 years old, and had multiple injuries in 2025.

Mason was not incredible in 2025, but was simply the better option in every way imaginable for the Vikings. It would be detrimental to the team if Jones had a similar workload to Mason.

A good depth RB, Mason was RB33 last season and could see a slight tick up in workload.

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr

ADP - 149, RB50 overall

Similar to Keaton Mitchell, Rodriguez is just too good to be considered just a handcuff. He was given a 2 year, $12m contract for a reason, and Travis Etienne is no longer there. He has legitimate NFL production, unlike Bhayshul Tuten, who is going 100 picks above Rodriguez.

I believe they will split carries, and it is possible Rodriguez is simply the better option.

A good handcuff who will excel in a full-time workload, but also a guy who could simply steal the majority of the RB production in Jacksonville.

WR Malik Nabers

ADP - 35, WR13 overall

Nabers' ADP is clearly overcompensating for his injury. The reporting around Nabers' knee recovery has been a bit inconsistent, but he seems all good in training camp, participating in full and not even landing on the PUP list.

Nabers has very little competition for targets in this Giants offense. Everything runs through him. He is clearly a supremely talented receiver.

If he is fully healthy, which it really seems like he is, I could seem him fighting for WR1 overall, and he currently is not considered a WR1 in your lineup.

WR Zay Flowers

ADP - 44, WR17 overall

Very simple. Unless one of the rookies Baltimore brought in is elite immediately, Flowers should definitely see 110 targets once again.

Flowers was WR7 last season, and I see no reason he can't put up 86 receptions for 1200 yards and 5 TDs again. Or something similar.

I wouldn't say Flowers is super underrated, but there are multiple WRs going over him that I do not have the same level of confidence in when it comes to hitting those numbers. Flowers is the top target in Baltimore, with ease.

WR Mike Evans

ADP - 62, WR26 overall

Evans is 33 years old and played just 8 games in 2025. The injury is the risk. But the upside is absurd, and fantasy football is about taking risks. You don't win by playing it safe.

And Evans is the clear WR1 in San Francisco with tremendous redzone upside. Even if he only plays 12 games, I still believe he'll give you WR2 production. And he's being drafted as a flex player.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson

ADP - 95, WR40 overall

Robinson is on a new team, but he has the same play-caller. And with that play-caller, he has received 140 targets in each of the last two seasons.

He finished as WR36 and then WR14 in those seasons. And his new QB loves throwing to his slot receivers. 140 may be the ceiling, but I feel as though that is baked in to Robinson's draft position.

WR40 is essentially a bench player. A bench player getting 110 targets? At least? Robinson is a great bet on an offense that will likely be pass heavy.

WR Quentin Johnston

ADP - 115, WR44 overall

Johnston has a bad rap due to rough rookie season, but he has improved each of the last two seasons. As a player, with his hands and body control, as well as his numbers. Everything is on the up.

Johnston has high TD potential, with 8 TDs in 2024 and 2025. Like McConkey, there are targets to be had with Keenan Allen's departure. That void will make up for Los Angeles being a run heavy team.

WR39 and WR34 of the last two seasons is only getting better and more opportunities, Johnston is a great grab at his ADP. I see a high floor and ceiling.

WR Jayden Reed

ADP - 122, WR45 overall

Reed missed most of 2025 with injury, but returns to a receiving room with targets available.

But in his first two seasons, he was incredibly efficient with his targets, could make plays in all areas of the field, and had a total of 17 TDs.

HC Matt LaFleur likes to manufacture touches for Reed as well, giving him some jet sweeps and touches in the redzone.

If Green Bay remains run heavy, Reed may not surpass his WR45 label. But in his first two seasons, in a crowded WR room, Reed was WR25 and WR29. This is a good player that LaFleur loves to get the ball too. And if Green Bay airs it out a bit more, Reed may even be more than a bench piece.

WR Jalen Coker

ADP - 145, WR53 overall

I don't know if I am fully in on Coker this year.

But he is a very good receiver and is the clear second option in the Panthers passing game. The problem is, it is possible to have confidence in this Panther passing game?

But, when Coker played in 2025, here were his fantasy numbers:

6.6 - 1.9 - 5.1 - 11.2 - 6.2 - 17.4 - 14.0 - 7.7 - 3.6 - 16.7 - 8.2

Coker is a good option to have on your bench, and even the occasional flex spot. Remember, these were his numbers in Year 2 as an undrafted player out of Holy Cross, on the Panthers. 2026 will be his first year as a full-time WR2. He should be playable, and going towards the very end of drafts is surprising.

Rookies

I would like to discuss rookies that I find to be interesting values.

WR Jordyn Tyson

ADP - 85, WR35 overall

Personally, I think Tyson will end up being WR1 in New Orleans. I believe he is that talented and could win OROY.

He will likely be in your lineup weekly by the end of the season, and he's not being drafted as a flex player to start the season.

WR Denzel Boston

ADP - 175, WR60 overall

The reports on Boston have been fantastic out of training camp. He is going 35 spots below a fellow rookie on the Browns. And while the Browns did draft Concepcion above Boston, they will both see the field as rookies.

Even with a bad passing game, the Browns have to throw to somebody. I think there's a shot an NFL team's WR1 is being drafted at the very end of fantasy drafts this year. A good shot in the dark, or at least a guy to watch.

WR De'Zhaun Stribling

ADP - 209, WR69 overall

Stribling has also had strong reports out of training camp, and with the injury to Ricky Pearsall, he could be WR2 for the 49ers.

Now, he still may be behind guys like Kittle and Christian McCaffrey in targets, but we've seen the 49ers 4th option on offense be great in fantasy before.

WR Zachariah Branch

ADP - 223, WR73 overall

Similar to Stribling, Branch could be WR2 on his offense. The ceiling may be lower for Branch because of the offense he plays on, but in a super deep league, he's a guy to watch.

Could be a high target guy as a checkdown option with good YAC ability.

RB Demond Claiborne

ADP - 216, RB65 overall

Claiborne is the most explosive back on the Vikings. He's more of a handcuff, but if he sees the field, the Vikings don't have enough invested in Jones or Mason to keep Claiborne off the field if he plays well. A Keaton Mitchell situation on a smaller level.

RB Kaytron Allen

ADP - 194, RB62 overall

Allen is in a crowded Washington backfield, but it's also a wide open backfield. I wouldn't even call Allen a handcuff, because there are four other RBs in there that have NFL production. But Washington isn't invested in any of them enough to keep Allen off the field if he deserves it.

RB Nick Singleton

ADP - 188, RB61 overall

Behind Pollard and Spears in Tennessee, Singleton is the only back who was brought in by the current regime. And the aforementioned backs have not been inspiring on the Titans. Tennessee could benefit from Singleton's explosive nature, and I would bet he sees carries as a rookie.

RB Jonah Coleman

ADP - 135, RB49 overall

Coleman is probably my favorite rookie, but he isn't totally cheap. He's getting drafted in every league. Dobbins is a great RB, but hasn't played a full season since he was a rookie. The closest he's gotten since is a 13 game season in 2024.

And RJ Harvey was an inefficient runner as a rookie. I think HC Sean Payton would definitely put Coleman on the field if Dobbins goes down, or even as the RB2.

Dolphins WRs

Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, Kevin Coleman Jr

This is for a deep league, or one where you're allowed to keep guys on a "practice squad."

Someone on this Miami team has to catch passes, and I like all three as prospects. Bell is still on the PUP list, recovering from an ACL tear. So maybe pass on him.

Douglas was the highest drafted, so expect him to get an early chance to start.

But Kevin Coleman Jr was the most productive in college, and has the speed to separate in the slot.

Ravens WRs

Ja'Kobi Lane, Elijah Sarratt

I brought up how Zay Flowers doesn't have much competition for targets. Well, these guys are the competition. Can they surpass Rashod Bateman, coming off a career worst season, and Devontez Walker in the receiver room?

Again, these are for deeper or rookie centric leagues. Lane has strong hands and was drafted before Sarratt, but Sarratt was more loved in the scouting world. I expect Lane to see work on the outside first.

Handcuffs

A common word thrown around in fantasy football, the handcuff.

It's a player, typically a RB, who you draft in order to have as insurance to the starter. Usually you do this when you draft the starter as well, but not necessarily. You take the backup in case the starter is injured, and now you have the bulk of that teams' running game.

Here are my top handcuffs.

RB Tyrone Tracy Jr

ADP - 121, RB45 overall

The thing about Tracy is, he's actually been a very productive RB in his two year career. Shoot, he was RB28 last year! And he was a college receiver, so he can handle the receiving work.

But backfield mate Cam Skattebo is going as RB20. Skattebo is coming off a brutal ankle injury, so who knows how the roles are split.

But if Skattebo goes down, Tracy can be a productive RB2 for your fantasy team.

RB Jonathan Brooks

ADP - 125, RB46 overall

Brooks was a 2nd rounder in 2024, coming off a torn ACL. He came back as a rookie, took 9 carries, and re-tore his knee, missing all of 2025.

So a totally unproven back, but he's the clear RB2 and has the support of the staff, and is healthy. The Panthers prefer to use one back as a workhorse, so if Brooks gets his chance, he could take over the backfield.

RB Tank Bigsby

ADP - 166, RB56 overall

Saquon Barkley's backup, Bigsby is in line for a large workload if things go south.

Bigsby had a strong 2024 season in Jacksonville, then was traded to Philadelphia last preseason. He had just 64 carries, but it was his most efficient season yet, which is notable, considering Saquon did not have that success.

Bigsby hasn't done much as a receiver, but he's still a must draft at the end of the draft if you're a Saquon owner.

RB Ray Davis

ADP - 211, RB64 overall

I was surprised to see Davis this low, considering how he has looked for Buffalo when James Cook misses time.

Davis saw the Week 18 start last season and put up 151 yards on 21 carries. Maybe Davis isn't a must draft if you have Cook, as the Bills use Ty Johnson quite often as a receiving back, but Davis sure is effective when he has bulk carries.

RB Brian Robinson Jr

ADP - 114, RB42 overall

Robinson has been a good rusher in his career, but the sole reason to take him is because of how valuable Bijan Robinson is.

And Robinson is the clear RB2 in the Falcons backfield. There really wasn't another option brought in this offseason. If Bijan is out, Robinson is a startable RB.

WR Ryan Flournoy

ADP - 246, WR78 overall

Flournoy showed how good he is in 2025, putting up 475 yards and 4 TDs, getting to start with CeeDee Lamb banged up.

The Cowboys passing game is elite, and if either Lamb or George Pickens miss time, Flournoy is WR2 and he is legit. It might be worth stashing him on your roster in case this happens, because if one of those guys are out, Flournoy is a playable WR in fantasy.

WR Jauan Jennings

ADP - 156, WR55 overall

Jennings showed his ceiling the last two seasons in San Francisco, putting up legitimate production. He's now the WR3 in Minnesota. So it's a similar situation to Flournoy, except the Vikings passing offense is not nearly as potent as Dallas'.

But if Addison or Jefferson miss time, Jennings could slide into your lineup. I would not recommend stashing him on your roster, however.

WR Pat Bryant

ADP - 261, WR80 overall

Bryant had a decent rookie season, seeing an increase in playing time towards the backhalf of the year.

He has Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle in front of him, but I think Bryant could be playable in a pass happy offense if one of those guys goes down. And they probably will.

Tight Ends

We have gotten to the TEs! I wanted to make this a separate section because they are a smaller part of fantasy, and expectations are often different. There's different types of values.

We talked about George Kittle, who falls into the first category below, let's get to the rest!

Big Hitting Value

TE Colston Loveland

ADP - 50, TE3 overall

Loveland is TE3, but he comes in 25 spots below TE2. Once Week 9 hit, Loveland was on pace for a 1000 yard, 10 TD season. He is clearly the Bears top weapon, and I believe he can easily be TE1.

Trey McBride saw a legendary workload in 2025, and while he was TE1 by a considerable margin, you can not expect another 170(!) target season. And Brock Bowers is on an offense that does not want to throw the ball with a QB not as good as Caleb Williams, who is throwing to Loveland on an offense that does throw the ball, and is pretty good at it.

I'm typically and advocate of waiting on TE, but if Loveland is there in Round 4, draft him!

TE Isaiah Likely

ADP - 101, TE10 overall

Jaxon Dart threw to his TEs 75 times on his 339 pass attempts last season. If you extrapolate Dart's attempt to the Giants total 2025 number, those TE targets jump to 125. And I don't think Theo Johnson is seeing 74 targets again.

I expect Likely to be the second option in the passing game behind Nabers, and see close to 90 targets.

TE10 is a big projection for Likely, who hasn't seen more than 60 targets in a season, but I think it is beyond reasonable. I would say Likely's floor is a starting fantasy TE, and his ceiling is TE4.

TE Jake Ferguson

ADP - 105, TE12 overall

Ferguson might be a bit less of a big hitter, but when he gets a full season with Dak Prescott, Ferguson has finished as TE9 and TE5. They clearly have a positive connection, and Ferguson has been a part of Dallas' elite passing game. Dak gives Ferguson 100 targets and legitimate redzone looks.

The ceiling isn't super high, because he is QB dependent and is mostly a checkdown target, but Ferguson will outproduce TE12 if Dak is under center.

Outproducers

TE Dalton Schultz

ADP - 144, TE21 overall

Since Schultz has gotten to Houston, he has finished as TE10, TE20, and TE10. The only threats to his targets are the young receivers taking a step forward, but nothing in the TE room.

90 targets feels like a safe bet, which is pretty fantastic for a guy going as TE21 overall. If for some reason you forget to draft a TE, Schultz is a fantastic option later in the draft. He was TE10 last year with just 3 TDs. If he is able to finagle an extra TD or two, Schultz is a viable start at TE.

He won't mash the scoreboard, but a viable option late in drafts and over the course of a season.

TE Mark Andrews

ADP - 109, TE14 overall

Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar's 51 targets are out of the building and replaced by two rookie TEs and two rookie WRs. Andrews had the worst season of his career in 2025 and was still TE16.

Unless he's just completely over the hill and tumbling down, I expect Andrews to be a viable start at TE this year. There is a very, very high chance he is the second option in the Ravens passing game.

Sneaky Bets

TE Chig Okonkwo

ADP - 146, TE22 overall

Okonkwo comes in just below Schultz, but he's more likely to just be sneaky than to outproduce TE22. A new team for Chig, who was only TE21 in 2025 despite seeing 79 targets.

But he's the top checkdown option for Jayden Daniels and is very strong after the catch.

I liked Chig more before the Stefon Diggs signing, but he's still a guy to keep your eye on. He's always been a decent play in fantasy, despite having poor TD production. He's some TD luck away from a consistent start.

TE Gunnar Helm

ADP - 180, TE24 overall

I really love Helm this year in Tennessee, considering Okonkwo is out of the building. However, OC Brian Daboll brought in TE Daniel Bellinger, who he loved in New York. Helm could go from a nice start on some weeks to not on any rosters if Bellinger takes away 40 targets.

If you are in a deeper league, I like Helm as a bet at TE24. And even just two spots below Okonkwo, he's going 35 picks later. Helm is a good player, and has the size, hands, and body control to be a potential redzone threat. This just didn't show up in 2025 because Tennessee was rarely in the redzone.

Before we wrap up here, I would like to talk about tiers.

If you don't understand what i mean, here is a link to a spreadsheet I made based on the ADPs. The gaps in between names indicate a break in the tier.

The best way I can describe it is with an example:

In a 10 man league, it is the top of the 8th round at pick 70. The top 6 QBs are gone, and you still need a QB. Caleb Williams is QB7.

But his ADP is 83rd, so you do not have to take him at Pick 70. Now, if you are high on him, go ahead. But if you agree with the ADP and want to maximize value, you should pass, because although he is QB7, he is not in the same tier as the guys ahead of him.

And if you end up waiting too long to take Williams, that is okay because there are 4 other QBs in his "tier."

So value wise, you have done just fine.

Tiers are a better way to operate and maximize value.

And maybe in this example, you don't like anyone else in Caleb Williams' tier. So you wait until the top of the next tier starts to get your guy. Tiers prevents reaching on players. Again, if you are particularly high on a player, it is okay to reach. But that's not value.

And this is manageable through my spreadsheet, or even on some website's draft boards.

Thanks for reading through my first fantasy article! As stated, I have an auction guide coming out. I will post what I believe each player is valued at in a $100 budget draft!

Let me know what your favorite type of fantasy league is, who you like this year, and what you disagree with me on!

Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!