Hot Seat! Who's Coaching for Their Job in 2026?
Updated: Aug 25
On average, around 7 head coaches are fired every offseason.
There are many reasons NFL head coaches get shown the door.
From not maximizing the roster, power struggles within the organization, underperforming for years, or even just because the franchise sees a chance to upgrade, NFL teams are not afraid to start fresh.
In fact, many teams seem willing to cycle through coaches constantly until they find "the one."
With that said, coaches find themselves in various situations going into the season that set the expectation for what they need to do in order to keep their job. These situations are often effected by external factors.
I set five different categories of various warm situations that set the tone for the 12 coaches who are in some form of hot seat.
Let's get into the hot seat discussion.
Scorching
Todd Bowles
35-33, 1 playoff win
Competing in one of the worst divisions in the NFL, Bowles' Buccaneers have never surpassed 10 wins. Baker Mayfield is on an expiring deal. Mike Evans departed. Lavonte David retired. And Vita Vea requested a trade.
Not only has Bowles underperformed during his tenure that followed a Super Bowl caliber team, but it seems like the entire Buccaneers organization may just be in need of a fresh start, and that should come with a new coaching staff.
Bowles has had 5 offensive coordinators during his tenure. The first was fired, two were hired as head coaches, another was fired, and the fifth one will call plays in 2026. That is not all Bowles' fault, of course, but being a defensive minded head coach means you need to consistently find an OC that can call a successful offense. It's a hard thing to do.
And if new OC Zac Robinson fails, it will likely mean Tampa Bay misses the postseason. And I think Bowles needs at least a playoff appearance, if not a win, to keep his job. If the vibes are high at the end of the year, finishing strong, even if that does not result in a playoff win, Bowles may stick around to extend this era of Buccaneers football. But that is quite a high bar.
Shane Steichen
25-26, 0 playoff appearances
Steichen missed on his top QB draft selection, and has now committed to Daniel Jones. While I believe Steichen is a good coach, based on being one throw away from making the playoffs with Gardner Minshew in 2023, and the way the season was going prior to Phillip Rivers making starts at QB in 2025, he needs success this season.
Jonathan Taylor has been extended, but Josh Downs, Grover Stewart, Deforest Buckner, and Quenton Nelson are all free agents after this season. Michael Pittman is already gone. And as for Daniel Jones' contract, it's not exactly binding past this season. The Colts, similarly to Tampa, could hit the restart button if things do not work out in 2026, moving on from head coach and quarterback.
Steichen needs to make the playoffs this season, because the 2027 offseason for Indianapolis sets up for an obvious reset of the Colts, including a new head coach.
In the Sauna
Aaron Glenn
3-14
Glenn is coming off just his first season with the Jets, so this may seem unfair. This is honestly more of a case the Jets will likely have the resources to acquire their potential franchise QB next offseason. And you don't exactly want a defensive minded head coach who has produced back to back bad seasons coaching that rookie.
However, the fact that Glenn's defenses in Detroit were never good either does not help his case. To help save his job, Glenn brought in a handful of veteran defenders in order to give this defense a chance at being competent.
It seems Glenn and the front office collaborated on this idea, because it would clearly be unfair to Glenn if he was fired after having poor talent defensively. However, because of this, Glenn will likely need legitimate strides defensively in order to keep his job. It seemed like a gesture of, "hey, we'll give you real players, but we need real results."
With these defensive pieces, Glenn also brought in another OC, in veteran coach Frank Reich. With Reich and these veterans, Glenn and co have a real presence on the Jets in just Year 2. I don't think Aaron Glenn is destined to lose his job no matter what, but he needs to make a real jump, especially against what is considered the weakest schedule in the NFL.
Zac Taylor
52-63-1, 2 playoff appearances, 5 playoff wins
Despite the nice playoff numbers, the Bengals have not appeared in the postseason since the 2022 season. While the Joe Burrow trade rumors every offseason are nonsensical, at the same time, there's a reason they emerge. You can not waste a fourth consecutive season of your franchise quarterback's prime by missing the playoffs.
And Cincinnati made legitimate moves to fix the defense this offseason, the thing that has plagued them for multiple seasons now. The pressure should be turned up. Because if Taylor can not get the Bengals to the playoffs, a change will need to be made before Burrow asks for a real change. And Zac Taylor is the sitting duck, the obvious change to make.
The issue with Taylor, and why the heat really isn't cranked up as high as it should be, is because the Bengals organization is notoriously cheap, or I suppose patient, when it comes to head coaches. They've had just two in the last 23 seasons, despite a combined .495 winning percentage.
Heated Seats on High
Dan Quinn
17-17, 2 playoff wins
Dan Quinn was a fantastic veteran hire for the Commanders in 2024, helping them launch into the NFC Championship game in Year 1, with a veteran heavy squad. After an injury riddled 2025, Washington dipped their toe back into the free agency pool and added starters to what was a horrific defense a year ago.
I would not say Quinn is doomed if the Commanders fail this season, hence why he's down in this tier, but a firing if he underperforms is not out of the question. Particularly if his defense is bad once again. Washington invested so many resources into their defense to the point where if their defensive minded head coach underwhelms, a firing is definitely possible.
If the Commanders do not take strides, whether that involves playoffs or not, they may want to go after a head coach candidate that can maximize Jayden Daniels as a QB, and ensure their most precious asset does not fail them. Daniels is really the priority in Washington, so his success may matter just as much as the overall team when it comes to Dan Quinn's job security.
Quinn's job is not really in the balance. There does not seem to be a marker he has to hit to ensure he sticks around. It's more about the vibe of the team, and making sure there is a clear upward trajectory by season's end.
Nick Sirianni
59-26, 5 playoff appearances, 6 playoff wins, Super Bowl Champion
One of the winningest coaches in NFL history has butt sweat after a car ride? Perhaps.
It's tough to know how the Eagles organization views Sirianni, considering all he's done is win since becoming their head coach. They've made the postseason every season, with two trips to the Super Bowl. It would be pretty embarrassing to move off of a guy like that, and then fail to successfully find a replacement. Especially when the Eagles make the playoffs again in 2026. Which is why Sirianni isn't truly on the hot seat, it's more warm, to potentially be hot next offseason.
You see, despite the 5 straight playoff appearances, two of those seasons, in 2023 and 2025, ended on a horrific note. The 2023 Eagles ended the season on a 1-6 sludge, including a blowout loss the the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. And the 2025 Eagles ended the season going 3-5, ending the year getting beat by a mangled 49ers team who got slaughtered the following week by the eventual Super Bowl champions. When the Eagles lose, they implode. And offensive coordinators get fired.
This is the main issue with Sirianni. I would not say he's bad at hiring coordinators, with the likes of Shane Steichen, Jonathan Gannon, Kellen Moore, and Vic Fangio coming through the Eagles' building. But the issue stems from who he's fired. OCs Brian Johnson and Kevin Patullo were both internal hires. And they produced horrendous results. But that happens to the best of them.
The real issue is the fact that, when things go south, Sirianni has no answer. He has no personal scheme he implements, or the ability to takeover and save the ship.
Look at the Lions in 2025. They lost OC Ben Johnson, make a new hire at OC, it's not going well, and HC Dan Campbell takes over the playcalling and produces a top 5 offense. Because in the end, the Lions are running Campbell's offense. Sirianni hires a new guy every year with a different scheme. None of it comes from him!
When the Eagles implode, it makes Nick Sirianni look bad because he never seems to have an answer for the madness. Philadelphia just waits until the offense to make adjustments, and a new season commences. So from the outside looking in, the question is obvious: what does Nick Sirianni actually do?
Coaching is so much more than playcalling and schematics, but Sirianni doesn't seem to have the "managing personalities" side of the job down either(see A.J. Brown). If Philadelphia once again slides late in the season, it's worth questioning if Nick Sirianni is the best man for what would be a very attractive job.
Dave Canales
13-21, 1 playoff appearance
The Panthers had a successful 2025, but they only went 8-9. There is a real chance Carolina has a better season this year, but don't surpass their 2025 results of making the postseason.
Canales' fate really comes down to what the organization wants, particularly at QB. Canales was brought in to save Bryce Young's career, which he has done, to a certain extent. But Young's 5th year option kicks in in 2027, and it seems as though they'll either extend him next offseason, or find a new option at QB for next season.
It's unknown how much progress the Panthers need to see out of the Young/Canales duo in order to have Young as their undisputed QB1 in 2027, which makes this hot seat ranking fairly ambiguous. But it's worth wondering how much more growth we'll see out of Young this season, with essentially unchanged offensive conditions. Will the Panthers want Canales around if they move on from Young?
Barring a completely disastrous season, it doesn't seem as though the outcome of the 2026 Panthers should impact Canales' job. But the organization may want their QB tied to a head coach. And with a looming decision at quarterback, one that seems to sway week by week, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Panthers make a move at QB and HC next offseason.
Jumping into a Volcano?
Obviously, putting a rookie head coach on the hot seat is ridiculous. But, we do see first year head coaches get fired nearly every season. And if not the first season, it seems as though they are set up to be canned in Year 2(see Aaron Glenn). Here are some head coaches entering their first season as HC with a team that could have a brief experience.
Jeff Hafley
Packers Defensive Coordinator(2024-25)
Hafley had alright results as a DC in Green Bay, and teams up with former Green Bay executive and new Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan in Miami. The problem for Hafley lies in the fact that the Dolphins roster is straight up bad.
The secondary has zero established starters, the receiver room is relying on 3rd round rookies and Greg Dulcich, it's bad. Like, worst team in the NFL bad. And if they end up with a pick in the range to pick the top QB in the draft(sorry Malik Willis), it's not unreasonable that the Dolphins would prefer a coach who can create a more nurturing environment, especially offensively.
Hafley being with Sullivan may help his odds, but being the worst team in the NFL, a very real possibility, would likely send Hafley packing after one year.
Todd Monken
Ravens Offensive Coordinator(2023-25)
A 60 year old first time head coach is dealing with the worst QB room in the NFL, and perhaps one of the most incompetent franchises in the NFL as well. Monken is jumping into the fire for his chance to be an NFL head coach. And it's really not fair to place him here.
But, with the QB room, it's fairly obvious the Browns 2027 Week 1 starter is not in-house. And it's also fairly obvious the Browns' first 1st round pick will be put towards a QB in the 2027 draft.
The question will be, do the Browns want Monken at the head of the franchise and calling the offense for their potential franchise QB? Or is he just the placeholder? The thing saving Monken is the fact that very few up and coming coaching candidates will want to go to Cleveland, although that could change if they have the chance to draft a certain QB in 2027.
Mike McCarthy
Cowboys Head Coach(2020-24)
The new Steelers head coach is reuniting with his former QB in Aaron Rodgers for the quarterback's last dance. Pittsburgh once again has a really solid roster throughout, with a nice young core to boot. McCarthy, meanwhile, will turn 63 years old during the season and, despite having a record of 43-25 in Dallas, went just 1-3 during the postseason in his 5 seasons there.
The Steelers aren't really in the business of moving on quickly, but they also aren't usually in the business of hiring 63 year old coaches, so maybe the organization is turning a new leaf. I don't think the odds McCarthy gets canned are high, but if he underperforms with this roster, and the Steelers finally need a new QB next offseason, the Steelers might just reset at both QB and head coach.
Joe Brady
Bills Offensive Coordinator(2023-25)
I do not think Brady is at risk after one season, mostly because it seems as though all the head honchos in Buffalo are in cahoots. Brady was promoted after long-time head coach Sean McDermott was fired, but GM Brandon Beane, who came in with McDermott, kept his job, mostly due to his relationship with the owners. And Brady got the job because of his relationship with Beane and QB Josh Allen.
There was a valid reason for firing McDermott, as it seemed the Bills needed change after getting a bit stagnant, especially on defense(McDermott's area of expertise). But with not much else shifting around, is it reasonable to expect real change for the Bills in 2026?
And if nothing changes, will the ownership demand actual change, resulting in a brief Joe Brady tenure? Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities.
Lighting a Match in the Wind
Kevin O'Connell
43-27, 2 playoff appearances
O'Connell has a fairly stout reputation as an NFL head coach, but enters Year 5 with the Vikings with zero playoff victories. I, too, believe O'Connell is a very strong NFL head coach, and the Vikings would be silly to break up their elite coaching staff of O'Connell and DC Brian Flores prematurely.
However, the Vikings have had really good rosters for the better part of a decade at this point, and very little success to show for it. Something has to change. The current problem lies in the quarterback.
In a world where it doesn't work out perfectly this season with Kyler Murray at the helm, and, for whatever reason, Murray is not on the Vikings in 2027, what happens? Do they remain in QB purgatory by going after a Mac Jones or Baker Mayfield type in free agency? Do they hand the reigns back over to J.J. McCarthy? Or do they draft another QB? A combination of options 1 and 3 seem most likely.
But will they want O'Connell around for this? Stats aren't everything, but not one QB on the Vikings under KOC has finished top 10 in EPA or success rate. Again, not everything, but those stats are indicative of successful offenses, and how "foolproof" they can be.
While I still think O'Connell is a very good coach, it's not like he's some foolproof QB magician. With no playoff success and failure in drafting a 1st round QB, do the Vikings want Kevin O'Connell to decide who their next franchise quarterback is? It's not unrealistic to say no.
Thanks for reading through the article!
Let me know if you agree with my tiers, and who resides in them. Who else should be on the hot seat?
Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!
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