How many of each position get drafted in Round 1?
Positional value is often a topic around the NFL Draft. But how many prospects at each position will actually get drafted in Round 1 of the draft?
Yes, that is the topic of today's article. We will be predicting how many players at each position get drafted on night one of the draft.
While every year is different, let's take a look at the averages for how many of each position go in the 1st round of the draft since 2020:
QB: 3.5
RB: 1.166
WR: 5.33
TE: 0.833
OL: 7
IDL: 2.5
EDGE: 4.66
LB: 1.66
CB: 4.33
S: 0.5
Based on these averages, I will choose over or under the amount. Then, I will give my own prediction, because the averages obviously are not indicative of this specific season.
QB:
UNDER 3.5
Prediction: 1
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana University
Mendoza is a clear cut lock at number 1 overall, for many reasons. We know this. The question is the second guy, likely being Ty Simpson.
I can see a world where it happens, with Arizona being the likely landing spot. The Cardinals, or another team, could easily hop up into the back of the 1st round and make the number of QBs taken be 2.
RB:
UNDER 1.166
Prediction: 1
Jeremiyah Love, University of Notre Dame
Love is the best offensive weapon in the draft, and a lock for the top 10. But even the teams that would likely draft Love don't exactly need a RB, it's just the value of having such a talented player in your backfield to help your young QB. RBs are plentiful in the league, and this class is fairly barren.
I like Jadarian Price, also from Notre Dame, as RB2. But definitely not in the 1st round. I don't see a place where he has a clear fit outside of Seattle, and they'll likely trade out. And that's before you talk about the value of a 1st round RB, and Price's talent level. Just one RB this year.
WR:
OVER 5.33
Prediction: 6
Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State University
Carnell Tate, The Ohio State University
Makai Lemon, University of Southern California
Denzel Boston, University of Washington
KC Concepcion, Texas A&M University
Omar Cooper Jr, Indiana University
I strongly feel as though all six of these guys are locks. There's been some murmurs, specifically about Cooper Jr, that he might fall closer to Round 2, but I don't see it.
While there may be mixed opinions, I believe so many teams need and value WR, that, no matter the order, all six will go. I even think all six guys could go in the top 21 picks! They've all got real, translatable NFL qualities and teams truly value WRs.
Honestly, I think the better question is if a 7th sneaks in. But I think the talent, as well as production, drop-off is a bit too severe. No need to reach on that 7th guy
TE:
OVER 0.833
Prediction: 1
Kenyon Sadiq, University of Oregon
This one is pretty easy. Sometimes, if you over think it, finding a landing spot for Sadiq can be tricky in a mock draft. But he's so talented, and such a modern type of weapon, that he is a no doubt 1st rounder.
This TE class is not the best at the top, but there's lots of guys that can sneak into Day 2. But I don't see a realistic guy who can be a 1st rounder. I suppose if I had to predict one, it would be Eli Stowers. I am personally not the biggest fan, but the appeal is obvious. A former QB, a big slot with shocking athleticism, maybe a team with like the modern big slot at the end of Round 1.
OL:
OVER 7
Prediction: 9
Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State University
Francis Mauioga, University of Miami
Spencer Fano, University of Utah
Kadyn Proctor, University of Alabama
Monroe Freeling, University of Georgia
Max Iheanachor, Arizona State University
Blake Miller, Clemson University
Caleb Lomu, University of Utah
Chase Bisontis, Texas A&M University
I used the broad category of OL, rather than OT and IOL, simply because so many college OTs become OGs in the NFL, even those who are selected on night one.
I feel supremely confident with 7, fairly confident with 8, and pushed it with 9 to meet the 32 pick mark. I truly believe the first 7 prospects listed are locks, and Lomu likely is too. I just find Lomu a bit behind the other tackles. However, teams love drafting OTs, because if you hit, you're set for a decade. And too many teams could use one for Lomu not to go, someone will love him.
The extra guard love comes from rumors, and also the value of offensive line. Ask someone how to build a team, and one of the first things they'll mention is the necessary infrastructure of the trenches. Many teams at the end of Round 1 could use a plug and play starting guard, making it reasonable for that 9th offensive lineman to go. I strongly considered Keylan Rutledge(Georgia Tech) in the final spot.
IDL:
UNDER 2.6
Prediction: 1
Kayden McDonald, The Ohio State University
This interior defensive line class will show itself more on Day 2, but you have to imagine at least one sneaks into the 1st round, right? Right!? I say Kayden McDonald because he's a problem solver. Stick him in the middle of your defense and your run defense is massively improved immediately. Not flashy, as is the theme of this IDL class, but effective. McDonald seems to have gotten the most 1st round love from the media.
Christen Miller is the same genre as McDonald, but the draft media makes it sound as though he's more destined for mid-round 2, rather than sneaking into the 1st. Caleb Banks is widely regarded to have 1st round tape, but he has a history of foot injuries and is 330lbs. He will not be a 1st round pick.
I can see a team liking Peter Woods, who was considered one of the best prospects coming into the season. If a team has a clear vision for him, meaning he has a consistent playing weight, I can see an organization falling in love with the 2024 tape enough to potentially make him a 1st rounder.
The odds with this class seem to indicate we see just one interior prospect, if any. But I think these guys are good enough for 1 to be a safe bet.
EDGE:
OVER 4.66
Prediction: 6
Arvell Reese, The Ohio State University
David Bailey, Texas Tech University
Rueben Bain Jr, University of Miami
Akheem Mesidor, University of Miami
Keldric Faulk, Auburn University
T.J. Parker, Clemson University
The first three here are easy locks. Then it gets a bit complicated. I feel confident on the number, I suspect I may even be slightly undershooting it, but the prospects who are drafted is the question.
Mesidor has Round 1 tape, but past injuries and being 25 years old has reportedly pushed him down boards. I'd still be dumbfounded if he was not a 1st rounder. Faulk is almost the opposite. He's only 21, but is considered raw. But a team may like the clean slate, considering the size that Faulk possesses. Again, uses media "sources", it sounds like a few teams(Dallas) will fall in love with the potential of Faulk. And Parker is a personal thing for me, I think he was solid this past year, and his 2024 tape puts it over the top. Multiple NFL teams will love his fit on their defense, and I think he goes Round 1.
Now, if some of these names are incorrect, I stand on the number because there are a handful of other EDGE players who can very realistically be Round 1 guys. The next three guys I would name are Malachi Lawrence(UCF), Zion Young(Missouri), and Cassius Howell(Texas A&M). If one of these guys were to sneak in, I believe it would more likely be due to one of my other positional predictions being incorrect, rather than one of the 6 prospects I named falling out.
LB:
UNDER 1.66
Prediction: 1
Sonny Styles, The Ohio State University
This one is fairly easy for me. Styles is a top 10 lock, one of the best prospects in this draft. The size and athleticism have everyone drooling before he even showcases his actual football skills.
The potential for a second LB isn't crazy at all, but I don't think it's clear where LB2 fits in. The two potential guys are C.J. Allen(Georgia) and Jacob Rodriguez(Texas Tech). Allen has the potential to be the prototypical NFL MIKE LB. Everyone raves about his brain and how he can command his defense. Rodriguez could hop up into the 1st round because of his playmaking, forcing the most fumbles in the FBS in 2025.
While I could see it happening, I expect just one LB to grace the 1st round.
CB:
UNDER 4.33
Prediction: 4
Mansoor Delane, Louisiana State University
Jermod McCoy, University of Tennessee
Colton Hood, University of Tennessee
Avieon Terrell, Clemson University
Probably the most tricky OVER/UNDER thus far. Delane and McCoy are 1st round locks, but the next two...it could go either way. I really like Terrell, but his size and the possibility that he might be confined to the slot could push him out of Round 1. And Hood had a good 2025, but isn't the cleanest NFL prospect.
I feel solid about the number four though, regardless of which prospects go. Chris Johnson(SDSU) has gotten some pre-draft hype from the media, which is often a good indicator. I also would not be shocked if some team loved D'Angelo Ponds enough and he sneaks into Round 1.
S:
OVER 0.5
Prediction: 2
Caleb Downs, The Ohio State University
Dillon Thieneman, University of Oregon
We are getting at least two safeties in the 1st round. There will more likely be three than there will be one. Both Downs and Thieneman are so talented in their versatile college roles that, even with the safety position consistently falling on draft night, they are too good in this specific class to fall out of Round 1.
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren could potentially sneak into the 1st round. He has the talent, and embodies the modern box safety, big nickel role that every team is seeking. Of course, we know historically that safeties fall out of the 1st round. But there have been reports saying to "throw out positional value" in this draft. So who knows.
So there we have it.
The OVER/UNDER predictions are in, along with 32 prospects across 10 positions.
We'll see how close these predictions turn out on draft night!
Stay tuned for more NFL and 49ers articles, news, and opinions!
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