Every NFC Team's Fatal Flaw Headed into 2026
No team is perfect.
Every team lost players, every team gained some players. Very rarely does a franchise truly stay steady in between seasons.
And even if they do, that doesn't mean everything was perfect in the prior year!
This article will go through each team and point out at least one flaw or roster hole that could hold them back from their ceiling in 2026.
Obviously every team has different expectations, so I don't want to say "what will hold each team back from winning the Super Bowl." Most teams do not have the Super Bowl as a realistic expectation.
Think of it as the general reason why the team could fail to reach their ceiling, or the reason why the team could lose a game on Sundays.
This is the NFC edition, and we will start out West.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Let's be real for a minute.
The Cardinals do not project to be very good, and have a few holes. I could point to the pass rush, the consistency of the secondary, the new head coach, or even something as small as the RT position.
But QB is the most important position on the team.
And if Arizona were to somehow be competitive this season, it would be because they have a decent offensive line and a pretty sweet cast of weapons on offense. But who is getting them the ball?
Literally.
Do we know who is going to start at QB this year?
I like Jacoby Brissett as a veteran who can distribute the ball and lead an offense, but there are a couple problems:
When Brissett played in 2025, the Cardinals were in the bottom half of the NFL in passing EPA, passer rating, and completion percentage. It wasn't bad, but in the guise of competing? Not good enough.
And, perhaps more importantly, Brissett hasn't even reported to the Cardinals camp. He wants a new contract.
If Brissett doesn't start, it's a 3rd round rookie in Carson Beck or Gardner Minshew, who hasn't had a productive season in 3 years.
Quarterback is the heartbeat of the team, and the Cardinals might not have one. It is tough to win like that.
Los Angeles Rams
Linebackers...?
I put the question mark because, while this position does project to be pretty poor, I'm not sure it will matter.
Nate Landman forced 4 fumbles last season and is a good tackler. Omar Speights is a good tackler as well. Is this the weakness on the Rams?
I don't think either is particularly sound in coverage, but they are surrounded by immense talent. The secondary and defensive line are ferocious enough to keep the field fairly condensed, which allows the LBs to not have to cover a lot of empty space.
Linebacker is the "weak" link position, but is there anything else to sink this Rams team?
The depth on the defensive line isn't great. They have three edge rushers I feel confident in, but that is it. It's nice that two are double digit sack getters, though.
The interior has a nice starting three, but again, I'm not confident in the depth after that.
The DL depth is not ideal, and health is the other concern you could point to.
Also, the only reason the DL depth would be a concern is if health issues popped up.
If you ever find yourself pointing to "health" or "injury concerns" as a reason to dislike a team, they are probably a pretty great team. That is the case here.
But, Matthew Stafford's elbow could be running out of gas, and one hard hit could put his back out of commission.
Davante Adams strained his back running a route last year at 33 years old. And the Rams WR depth is pretty bad.
When you have to nitpick to find weaknesses, all of a sudden more start to pop up. It does seem as though it will take a few banged up guys for the Rams' "weaknesses" to show themselves. They should be competing for the Super Bowl in 2026.
San Francisco 49ers
Pass rush across from Nick Bosa
The 49ers finished 32nd in sack rate and 31st in pressure rate last season.
Now, this did come in a year where superstar DE Nick Bosa played just two full games, and 2025 1st rounder DE Mykel Williams played just 8.
While those guys will come back, they are coming off major surgeries. Williams, who wasn't much of a pass rush threat anyways, likely will start the year on the PUP list.
The 49ers want to compete in the playoffs. Elite playoff teams have a great pass rush.
Yes, Bosa is back. And they traded for Osa Odighizuwa, one of the best interior rushers in the game.
But who else do they have? Specifically off the edge?
Here are the names:
Keion White - 10.3% pressure rate, coming off an ankle surgery after being shot
Mykel Williams - 6.3% pressure rate, coming off ACL surgery
Sam Okuayinonu - 7.5% pressure rate
Romello Height - 70th overall pick out of Texas Tech
Now, for the guys who were their in 2025, rushing the passer is a lot easier when on a line with Nick Bosa. So the production should increase.
But the 49ers need a legit threat who can win on his own across from Bosa. Someone who can pin their ears back on 3rd and long to affect the QB. This is crucial for postseason success.
My best guess is they want that guy to be Height, but betting on a 25 year old rookie who hardly cracks 240lbs may not be a winning bet.
The 49ers have a fairly rock solid roster. The true fatal flaw is something I like to avoid mentioning for all teams, and again, is the sign of a good team when mentioned: the injury issues.
It's not that I'm concerned someone will get hurt, it's about the bounceback.
George Kittle, Mike Evans, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Nick Bosa, and Mykel Williams all missed significant time in 2025 and are expected to play a big role for the 49ers this season. And that's not to mention Christian McCaffrey, who's coming off an incredibly high workload, or Trent Williams, a 38 year old tackle.
If anything, I would unfortunately say that I expect at least a couple of those guys to either miss time or take a noticeable step back.
We'll see if the 49ers can beat the injury bug and how much their pass rush production increases as they try to climb back to the Super Bowl.
Seattle Seahawks
The run game philosophy
Seattle won the Super Bowl off the back of a historic playoff run by Kenneth Walker.
But, their run game was not actually a real strength of the team.
25th in yards per carry
25th in EPA per run
28th in stuffed rate
24th in success rate
21st in rush yards over expected
For the most part, it was well below league average.
And Walker is now gone. And his explosive carries were what carried the Seahawks run game efficiency. He had 60% of their explosive runs while taking just 43% of carries.
To replace Walker, Seattle drafted Jadarian Price in the 1st round.
I personally like Price and what he offered as a prospect.
I believe his ability to get to top gear quickly paired with his vision will make him a very effective replacement for Walker.
However, Price has no experience on 3rd downs. And Walker wasn't a very good 3rd down back either.
So Seattle is still relying on Zach Charbonnet, now coming off an ACL tear. While Charbonnet is a solid pass protector and has good hands, he doesn't really offer much as a receiver. And as a rusher, he's quite average, and that was before his ACL tear.
The reason the offense worked with a poor run game is because former OC Klint Kubiak still ran the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. He forced defenses to respect to help out his QB.
Will new OC Brian Fleury be able to design a better run game? Or hold to the same mentality as Kubiak that worked so well?
Kubiak stuck with the run game because QB Sam Darnold flourished under that identity.
With play-action, Darnold was 1st in the NFL in EPA, 3rd in passer rating, 2nd in YPA, and 6th in CPOE. Without, Darnold was 23rd, 23rd, 9th, and 6th in those same respective categories.
Despite not having a strong rushing attack, Kubiak drilled the run game down his opponents throat to help his QB.
Will the Seahawks run game improve so that philosophy does not need to be continued? And if it doesn't, will Fleury master Kubiak's gameplan and rhythm as a play caller to help benefit his QB in the same way?
I think this is a legitimate question about Seattle that could hurt them against playoff level competition. Now, they negated it last season, but with the switch at OC, it warrants the question of what will change?
Seattle doesn't have many flaws, outside of some new players taking on bigger roles defensively this season.
But the run game efficiency, or overall philosophy, will directly impact the play of their Pro Bowl QB.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
The pass rush
I actually have a few issues with the Bears, odd considering they just won their division.
But the LT spot is concerning, the fact that they're relying on young WRs to take major leaps is concerning, the fact that Caleb Williams essentially is forced to take an MVP level leap for Chicago to be competitive is concerning.
On that last point, a large part of the reason I believe that to be true is because the defense did not get better. Namely, the pass defense.
In 2025:
28th in yards per pass play
15h in pass EPA allowed
21st in sack rate
27th in pressure rate
32nd in time to pressure
Chicago was average or worse in all pass defense metrics, and they led the NFL in turnovers forced. Turnovers are not a consistent thing year to year.
Pass rush is.
And all their most notable move was signing Neville Gallimore.
And while they did make a couple necessary depth signings, that is not seriously moving the needle when it comes to improving upon their 2025 season.
No defensive lineman on the Bears exceeded 50 pressures.
Only two defensive linemen exceeded a 10% pressure rate.
Only two exceeded 5 sacks.
And they are relying on Neville Gallimore, Kentavius Street, rookie Jordan van den Berg, and Dayo Odeyingbo off an achilles tear to fix it.
Again, the Bears 2025 defense was not even that great. And they decided to not invest anything notable into their defensive front.
Their two biggest moves were giving safety Coby Bryant a $40m contract and drafting safety Dillon Thieneman in the 1st round. And the reason they had to invest into the safety room is because they lost both of their starters, who combined for 8 INTs and 16 PDs, in free agency!
I brought up in the 49ers section how you really need an elite pass rush to matchup in the playoffs.
Not only do the Chicago Bears not have that elite pass rush, but I do not think they have a single hope to have one!
Detroit Lions
The pass defense
I specify pass defense as a whole because the secondary in it's current state is concerning.
I like D.J Reed, and the Roger McCreary signing was nice, but both of those guys are quite undersized.
Detroit has the best safety duo in the NFL, but Brian Branch is coming off an achilles tear and will miss part of the season. And nobody seems to know if Kerby Joseph will ever even play football again.
So the secondary has issues. And in 2025 they allowed the 6th most explosive pass plays in the entire NFL.
But the pass rush up front is equally as concerning.
Yes, it's nice to have Aidan Hutchinson. A true dominant DE who can put up 80 pressures and double digit sacks.
But Detroit lost Al-Quadin Muhammad, who had 10 sacks and a higher pressure rate than Hutchinson last year. And they replaced him with D.J. Wonnum, who had a third of Muhammad's production.
On the interior, the Lions will be relying on Alim McNeil to bounce back a full season removed from his ACL tear. He was once a solid interior rusher, but that effectiveness was quite reduced in 2025.
If I had to guess, I would say Detroit expects McNeil to bounce back and for rookie 2nd round pick Derrick Moore to have a productive rookie season.
But again, if you want to compete deep in the playoffs, you need to get after the QB. And I think when teams play the Lions, the QB might be too comfortable, not having to worry about the pocket collapsing, nor about safeties wreaking havoc on the backend.
Green Bay Packers
Outside Cornerback play
I was having trouble trying to narrow down a specific flaw that wasn't just "defense," but I settled on their outside CBs.
The Packers have some good players on their defense, but I struggle to see a good defense.
If Micah Parsons is healthy, I think they can be closer to average. He has a ridiculous impact. But even with Parsons, I could have criticized their lack of a secondary pass rusher.
Who's stopping the run? It's not Javon Hargrave, their main addition to the defense.
The only thing we know is good is the safety duo, which is fantastic.
However, I think the Packers cornerbacks, which are currently slated to once again be Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon, are the biggest liability that will prevent Green Bay from getting to where they want to be in the posteason.
They drafted Brandon Cisse, but I would be surprised if the newly 21 year old CB is ready to start in the NFL. Maybe he's a better option than Nixon, though. He probably is.
Regardless, these CBs can be picked on.
They were credited for giving up 7 TDs last season, and a 106.5 and 126.1 passer rating, respectively.
Valentine is a fairly good cover corner but is dreadful when having to contest or make tackles.
Nixon is a solid physical corner, but is incredibly grabby and if he can't get away with contact, he struggles to stay with WRs.
It is incredibly hard to win games in the playoffs if Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon have to guard Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, etc.
And a part of their struggles is tied to the lack of dominant pass rush, which I don't really expect to change, to no fault of Valentine and Nixon.
Minnesota Vikings
Offensive synchronization
Hopefully this will make sense.
Minnesota's run game is as slight concern of mine. Aaron Jones is in his 30s and was banged up last season. They were 16th in EPA per rush, 12th in success rate, and were 14th in stuffed rate. Not exactly capable of carrying an offense.
But the Vikings will likely be starting Kyler Murray this season. Kyler can help open up a run game. Even in a down year, Murray still averaged 6 yards per carry, had a positive rushing EPA, and a 20% explosive run rate. Murray's legs will do wonders for the offense.
But Kyler Murray hasn't really played in an offense like Kevin O'Connell's before. O'Connell is a pretty classic Shanahan type scheme; play-action with over the middle concepts. Hit the receivers on digs. Kyler not only has little experience in an offense like this, but he seems to dislike throwing at the intermediate level over the middle of the field.
There is potential for Murray to benefit the Vikings offense and the Vikings offense to benefit Murray, but it's also a possibility Murray struggles to get his legs going and he can not adapt to throwing over the middle.
I believe in Kevin O'Connell's ability to get Murray's legs going.
J.J. McCarthy averaged 4.9 ypc and had 4 TDs with a positive rushing EPA and positive yards over expected. McCarthy is bigger than Murray, but Murray is much more explosive.
And O'Connell did not run much up the middle, meaning much of the Vikings 2025 QB run game can be replicated with Murray
The Vikings have a fairly solid defense, that is strongly supported by DC Brian Flores, the best defensive play caller in the game. They won 9 games last season with a wonky offense that consisted of an average run game and a poor passing attack.
All Minnesota needs is an average offense and they should be a shoo-in for the postseason.
With Kyler Murray's ceiling, the Vikings have a chance to elevate their offense into a unit that can win this division. But, there is a very real world where Murray can not get synched up with the scheme, and it falls apart in pathetic fashion.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Edge rush production
Hammering this weakness home for many teams is getting a little repetitive, but it's all true.
Obviously, the Cowboys traded Parsons 11 months ago and that left a large hole off the edge. They did their work to shore up the interior with Kenny Clark and Quinnen Williams, put those aren't the guys who get the one on one matchups and put up the big numbers.
That comes off the edge.
Here are the Cowboys current options:
Rashan Gary - 12.1% pressure rate, 7.5 sacks in 2025
Donovan Ezeiruaku - 8.8% pressure rate, 2.0 sacks in 2025
James Houston - 13.3% pressure rate, 5.5 sacks in 2025
Malachi Lawrence - 1st round pick, 7.0 sacks at UCF in 2025
Can anyone in this group take advantage of the one on one matchups they will see and increase their production to a higher level?
I've appreciated the efforts Dallas has made since the Parsons trade to piece their defense back to a respectable level.
Adding Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant, and rookie 1st rounder Caleb Downs to the secondary is a huge turnaround. Getting a full season of Clark and Williams on the interior will be nice to watch.
The LBs still don't look great, but adding Dee Winters and getting a (hopefully) fully healthy DeMarvion Overshown is an upgrade over what the Cowboys had for the majority of 2025.
But without a superstar playmaker, unless Downs becomes that, the defense is not really threatening. And that's because quarterbacks can feel comfortable in the pocket. There was no legitimate threat coming around the edge last season.
Forcing QBs to step up in the pocket, right into Quinnen Williams lap, is how the Dallas defense can go from just escaping the basement to a respectable middle of the pack.
I do think it's realistic for Dallas fans to think about the playoffs this year. The offense is so legit, the defense improved, and the coaching staff seems to be solidified.
But you will likely not get there, let alone compete if you do, if there is no pass rush off the edge.
New York Giants
Go-to receiving threats
At the beginning of this article, I said these flaws are what can hold each team back from their ceilings.
Well, I have no clue what the Giants ceiling is. Because there are a lot of flaws on this roster. There's nothing specific to point to here because there is so much bad.
Something I really wanted to highlight was the run defense. It was bad last year, and they moved on from Dexter Lawrence in April. I can't fathom what it could look like in 2026. And if teams can run down your throat and control the game, it's hard to compete and win games.
But, if the Giants have any type of ceiling, it will be raised by their young QB.
Which is why I settled on the "flaw" above.
Now, this one is tricky.
Because the Giants do have the go-to guy in Malik Nabers. Jaxson Dart has his WR1, the guy that all young QBs need. But there is a good chance Nabers misses a chunk of the season.
Beyond that, I still like some of the Giants pass catchers.
Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy out of the backfield is some of the best you can get in terms of pass catching.
New York added Isaiah Likely in free agency. Likely's never had the TE1 role, but performed well in Baltimore.
I even like some of the depth WRs New York has, with Darnell Mooney, Calvin Austin, and rookie Malachi Fields.
So what's the issue?
There's no reliable guy!
A TE who has never seen over 60 targets in a season, some cheap free agent additions, a rookie, and a couple of running backs?! Is this a joke?
Even the bonafide superstar WR1 isn't reliable after his devastating knee injury.
I don't entirely see this as an environment where Dart is set up for success. Not to say he can't succeed. But if we get to January and we are not sure if Dart is a franchise QB or not, I don't think you can say it's his fault.
He's out there behind a potentially decent offensive line and throwing to a bunch of backup quality pass catchers.
If you want to reach your ceiling, which to me is a top 12 offense in the NFL, it has to come from Dart. And having a bunch of WR3s and WR4s does not equal a strong WR2.
The Giants offense ranked in between 8th and 20th in every relevant stat in 2025. Having a top 12 offense is incredibly realistic if Jaxson Dart progresses in Year 2. But that progress may be halted by an underwhelming supporting cast.
Philadelphia Eagles
Offensive Cohesion
There might be a better word to use than cohesion for what I mean, but hear me out.
The Eagles have a new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion. Mannion will be calling an offense that QB Jalen Hurts has never run before.
Eagles' offenses are strictly shotgun, with over 69% of plays coming out of the shotgon. Mannion is coming from Green Bay, where that number is at 54%.
Mannion will bring more motion and play-action, coming from under center, he'll want to attack the middle of the field.
This isn't to say Philadelphia has run the same offense with Hurts every year. But it does seem like every year ends the same: with Hurts reverting back to purely shotgun sideline shots and RPOs.
But the change that might even be bigger than Mannion this offseason is trading A.J. Brown.
Because, like I said, the Eagles have had a variety of OCs. But they always go back to adapting their offense to make Hurts comfortable, which they can afford to do because the Eagles had the best man beating WR in the NFL on the perimeter. A physical guy who won every one on one matchup.
That guy is gone.
And he was replaced by a smaller college WR who dominated against soft coverage and over the middle of the field in Makai Lemon. The Eagles also drafted TE Eli Stowers, who profiles similar to Lemon.
Neither are dominating on the perimeter.
The Eagles can no longer revert back to their old ways midseason. The offense that Sean Mannion is bringing has to work and be effective.
This is a Super Bowl team.
The roster does not have holes. Maybe offensive line depth? Who isn't weak in that area?
It's a stacked group that should have a dominating defense called by Vic Fangio.
The offense lost Brown, but still have Devonta Smith and Saquon Barkley, and spent their top two picks on pass catching weapons.
So the pressure really falls on QB Jalen Hurts' shoulders to be able to execute a new offense, because the talent around him won't be able to execute the "go-ball" offense Hurts is accustomed to.
Philadelphia will be one of the best teams, with a dominant offense led by a strong running game, if the execution of Mannion's offense is successful. If Hurts and company struggle to adapt, it's possible we see another late season Eagles collapse as they once again get out-coached when it matters
Washington Commanders
Pass defense
Washington had a pathetic defense in 2025. Bottom 5 in EPA allowed, yards per play allowed, explosive plays allowed, and bottom 10 in pressure rate.
This is why the Commanders went out and acquired 7 defenders who project to be new starters for them in 2026.
I really do like the situation the Commanders have put themselves in, but they are relying on a lot of new talent. However, there is enough of said talent to potentially put them back in the playoffs.
And I think the pass defense is make or break. Obviously, I suppose. It's that way for ever team.
But Washington really stacked up their front seven depth. I trust them to stop the run and put opponent in passing situations. They loaded up with pass rushers that have no reason not to replicate their success, namely Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson.
My question is, how good does the pass rush have to be to make up for the potentially poor cornerback room?
I like the Commanders safeties, especially with the addition of Nick Cross.
But here are their projected starters at CB:
Trey Amos - decent rookie year, but not the best at making plays on the ball and broke his fibula in Week 10
Amik Robertson - breakout 2024 in Detroit, inside-out versatility, but was poor in coverage and missed too many tackles last season
Mikey Sainristil - slot starter, physical player but not a blitzer from the slot. Gave up 10 TDs in 2025
Washington also recently signed veteran Rasul Douglas, who I believe should start, but the names above are either high draft picks or got real money as a free agent. Douglas will likely take over at some point, as he always does.
I've already discussed the ramifications of poor cornerback play, and it's no different for Washington. In a division with Devonta Smith, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Malik Nabers, they will get exposed in important games.
Now, if Amos returns healthy and improved in Year 2, this could be a decent group. We've seen good play from everyone here, including Douglas. Especially with an improved pass rush in front of them.
I like a lot of the Commanders roster. It was tough to pick out what I think could be their flaw in 2026. But while their defense is much improved, the odds that every acquisition is a success is low. Meaning the cornerbacks will not have an easy time, all the time. They will be tested, especially in this division.
If something is to hold Washington back from returning to the playoffs, I would guess the pass defense is below average.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback play
As I look at this Atlanta squad, I actually believe in the defense.
I believe they have productive players on all three levels, and if you trust Jeff Ulbrich, you should feel good about the Falcons 2026 defense.
And on the offensive side, while the run game was not statistically great, you are getting a new offensive mind in the building, and you still have Bijan Robinson.
So I do think Atlanta has a chance to compete in a mediocre division.
Atlanta has two QBs that could play this season.
Michael Penix, headed into Year 3 as he recovers from his third ACL tear.
And Tua Tagovailoa, who has is at the top of "time to throw" leaders consistently. He has to get rid of the ball quickly because he is afraid of getting hit after multiple serious concussions.
I kind of lose hope when I think about the Falcons QB options.
The only way to convince me the Falcons could win this division is if Michael Penix breaks out. And as much as I love Penix from his Washington days, I just can not get on board.
Again, he's coming off another ACL injury. That's brutal.
But in terms of actual on-field play, it's still hard to convince myself.
Penix just has not been accurate nor efficient, at all.
30th in CMP%
31st in CMP% over expected
24th in passer rating
23rd in success rate
24th in EPA per dropback
15th in yards per attempt
Already it hasn't been pretty.
And now Kevin Stefanski takes over as the play caller. Similarly to how I talked about Minnesota and Philadelphia, Stefanski brings a more under center, attacking the middle of the field style of offense.
I'm not sure Penix is comfortable making those throws. He prefers to attack outside of the numbers.
It will be a tough adjustment, as the Falcons only ran under center 18% of the time in 2025.
Tua, however, might be more accustomed to what Stefanski wants to do in an offense. He played 4 years under Mike McDaniel, who also runs his version of a Shanahan style offense.
Tua loves to throw timing routes over the middle of the field. There is a reason Stefanski chose him as his veteran free agent addition.
However, Tua can get away with his ultra quick release and overly relying on anticipation when he has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at WR. The Falcons have nobody with such speed. Tua throw quickly to avoid getting hit. He will not be able to do that in Atlanta.
So, I believe the Falcons have a problem at QB regardless of who they go with, making it hard to maximize the talent while executing the new scheme.
It will be hard to compete for the division title without a reliable signal caller.
Carolina Panthers
Yards After Catch
The vaunted statistic of yards after catch.
The Panthers nobody to rely on for this aspect of the game.
And with Bryce Young at QB, they need a guy.
Carolina was 27th in total YAC and 28th in YAC over expected in 2025.
Not good.
The main concern is the running backs. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard combined for just 56 YAC over expected, and they caught 69 passes!
Running backs are crucial when it comes to getting YAC, because they are checkdown targets near or behind the line of scrimmage.
Bryce Young was improved last season, but if you watch the games, it didn't look easy at times. And, in my opinion, that is due to not being able to move offense forward by way of the checkdown.
At wide receiver, Tetarioa McMillan and Jalen Coker are two big bodied, strong handed WRs who are reliable targets for Young. And when they have space downfield, they can finesse their way into some YAC. But that isn't exactly what I mean.
Young needs someone who he can dump the ball off too and it will benefit the offense.
Tight end Tommy Tremble is a guy I will l point to. Tremble has some tackle breaking ability as a checkdown target, but he's not even a full-time TE.
Dowdle is gone, and maybe Hubbard will be improved if fully healthy in 2026. But the other option is Jonathan Brooks, a 2024 2nd round pick who suffered two right ACL tears within 13 months, in late 2023 and 2024. He missed all of 2025.
I actually like Brooks, but a RB coming off two ACL tears who only had 26 receptions in college is not something to bank on.
The top passing offenses in yards per play and EPA per play were all at least above average in YAC over expected:
Patriots - 16th in YAC OE
Rams - 15th
Packers - 14th
Bills - 10th
49ers - 8th
Cowboys - 4th
Lions - 3rd
Seahawks - 2nd
Not everything is so simple, but it is not that hard to connect some dots here.
Bryce Young and the Panthers offense will continue to struggle to find consistency without a reliable checkdown option that can move the chains after the catch. I suggest they sign Deebo Samuel, who, despite being deemed as "washed," was still 12th among WRs last year in YAC OE. And that came off of a screen heavy target diet.
If the Panthers want a jump from Bryce Young and a consistent offense, they need help from RBs catching passes behind the line of scrimmage and YAC support in general. And if that improvement does not come, they will not repeat as NFC South champions.
New Orleans Saints
Taking Sacks
I see the Saints as the frontrunner for this division.
Their offense looks solid, pending the development of QB Tyler Shough. Especially with the additions of 1st round WR Jordyn Tyson, LG David Edwards, and RB Travis Etienne. There is not a major hole to poke, outside of health concerns.
And defensively, DC Brandon Staley had this team in great shape. It will be tough to replace the IQ of All-Pro LB Demario Davis, but they brought back LB Kaden Elliss. The young CB room is underrated, backed by a pair of solid veteran safeties. And I think Chase Young is quietly an elite defensive end. New Orleans was also one of the best run stopping units in the NFL in 2025.
It's a very good, ascending roster with a strong coaching staff. I believe they will be many pundits picks to win the South.
And Tyler Shough is a large part of that. He showed good things on film in his 10 starts last season.
But the Saints will struggle to win the division, let alone a playoff game, if the offensive efficiency does not pick up.
It was bad by all accounts last year, but you would hope adding Etienne and Edwards, along with having a healthy Erik McCoy, improves the run game. And for large parts of last season, Dante Pettis was New Orleans' WR2. So there is reason to believe in improvement.
But Tyler Shough needs to massively decrease the amount of sacks he takes.
In 2025, he was pressured 110 times. He was sacked on 31 of those pressures.
That is a 28.18% pressure to sack rate, second worst in the NFL, only behind Geno Smith.
Some QBs above 23%:
Geno Smith - 28.95%
Lamar Jackson - 27.48% (played through a hamstring injury)
Justin Fields - 25.23%
Tua Tagovailoa - 24.39%
Aaron Rodgers - 23.58%
Cam Ward - 23.40%
Jaxson Dart - 23.18%
I would not call this good company for Shough.
Only Rodgers was on a playoff team, and only the Ravens had a Top 10 offense.
Taking a high percentage of sacks is a death sentence for NFL offenses. Not all sacks are created equal, but it is the most negative play that can happen for an offense, at least when they happen frequently.
Sacks are impossibly hard to overcome, especially with a young QB.
The Saints future looks bright, as does their odds for success in 2026, but they will undoubtedly struggle to find that success if Tyler Shough can not cut his pressure to sack ratio down.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Outside Cornerbacks
We've already brought this subject up with other teams.
Tampa's roster is in pretty good shape. They have options across most positions if something goes wrong, or if injuries bite them again.
Linebacker is the other hole I was considering, with Lavonte David walking out the door. But Alex Anzalone is still a decent player, and I like the Josiah Trotter selection. But it is a bit frightening after those two. They were vulnerable in between the numbers last season.
You are also quite vulnerable if you don't have competent play on the perimeters, at least against certain teams in December and January.
Zyon McCollum got paid after his breakout 2024 season, but was picked on heavily this past year. He was in the Top 20 of targets by primarily outside CBs last season and gave up 7 TDs in just 13 games.
Benjamin Morrison was a rookie who saw limited playing time, but got 3 starts last season. He was targeted 40 times and was credited with 4 TDs. He did not look like the makings of a future reliable starter.
Now, the Bucs have a good safety duo. Jacob Parrish was strong in the slot as a rookie. They also drafted DB Keionte Scott, who was a weapon all over Miami's defensive backfield last college football season. There's a change they move Parrish to the outside and allow Scott to work in the slot.
Also, the Buccaneers pass rush is solid. And they are adding 1st round rookie Rueben Bain Jr and Al-Quadin Muhammad. This upgrade may be enough to help McCollum return to form. And even having just one reliable outside CB makes all the difference.
If Tampa can't get McCollum back to form, or secure a reliable outside starter with the loss of Jamel Dean, it will be tough for them to see playoff success, which is likely the only thing that will keep HC Todd Bowles around in 2027.
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